On a crisp autumn day in October 2024, Kazakhs entered the polling booths to voice their support or dissent for a nationwide referendum authorizing the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. With an astounding turnout of almost 8 million citizens and a 71% approval rate, the referendum was successful.
Nonetheless, the opposition against the nuclear plant’s construction was vociferous. A principal concern for the opposition group was the fear of foreign interference, particularly from Russia. The Russian oil company, Rosatom, had expressed interest in funding the power plant, despite its legacy from the Chornobyl disaster in 1986. Worries arose that allowing such an intervention would increase Kazakhstan’s dependency on Russia, from whom it gained independence in 1990 at the precipice of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
In the days leading up to the referendum, reports emerged that the government attempted to suppress peaceful political protests by activists who opposed the approval of the power plant. Activists were denied entry to audience halls where the power plant was being debated, detained while leaving public hearings and an increased law enforcement presence was noticed around journalists.
The climax of the contention was in September 2024, a few weeks before the actual referendum election. In Almaty, the country’s largest city, groups of activists took to the streets to voice their opposition to the proposed power plant. The Kazakh government clamped down on the protests through arrests. Five men, one named Aidar Mubarakov, were detained in the city for protesting the nuclear proposal, accused of “organizing mass riots” according to Article 272 of the Criminal Code. Article 272 states that the organization of violent riots is punishable by imprisonment for a period of four to ten years; however, the reported protests carried out by Aidar Mubarakov and his colleagues remained peaceful, with the men arguing that they had no intention of inciting violence and were exercising their inalienable constitutional liberties. Accordingly, many citizens viewed this case as a breach of the government’s legal framework, portraying ordinary citizens, who were pacifist in their actions, as criminals or security risks, engendering worries that Kazakhstan’s criminalization of peaceful activism was a step toward potential authoritarianism.
One of the protesters, Aidar Mubarakov (56), had previously spoken out against the government’s actions only a few years prior. While Mubarakov is arguably not as famous as other Kazakh human rights defenders in the region, his civic anonymity renders his story compelling. In 2022, Mubarakov and his friend, Erkin Kaziev, were similarly criminally charged for an art performance in which they chained themselves to a large cage with wheels and held signs stating “Kazakhstan is a large prison” above their heads. Police used scissors to cut the chains and began launching tear gas canisters against the protesters.
Accordingly, it can be concluded that Mubarakov is no longer simply a protester with a just cause, but something more. The government’s violation of Mubarakov’s protective freedoms during the nuclear plant protest under the guise of protecting the public from the “disruption of a state event” and “illegal assembly” designates Aidar Mubarakov a political prisoner.
What does that mean? According to the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly, a person is considered a political prisoner if their detention was imposed in violation of a fundamental guarantee of their liberty, such as freedom of thought or assembly, the prisoner was detained for purely political reasons if the charges are clearly out of proportion with what the accused was doing and if the arrested was subject to an unfair and biased trial. Mubarakov was indeed detained during a peaceful protest, was simply an everyday worker who was arrested for expressing his concern about a government project and was unjustly sentenced to a 5-year arrest.
Initially, Mubarakov’s case received minimal international attention, and within Kazakhstan itself, the arrest went largely unnoticed. As momentum behind the referendum began to build, however, many organizations started to remark on the campaign against the nuclear power plant and the various opposition movements to its approval. For instance, Radio Free Europe, a private journalism organization that prides itself on promoting democracy and debate in countries where the free press is restricted, published an article highlighting Mubarakov’s arrest in early October. While this detailed publication garnered some attention, the case was brought up again a few months later by the Open Dialogue Foundation in its annual report on the 2024 human rights violations in Kazakhstan. Summarizing Kazakhstan’s numerous violations with the stark title “Tough Year for Human Rights,” the report outlined over 48 political prisoners subjected to captivity within the nation and the continued curtailment of human rights implemented by the government, demonstrated through anti-terrorism legislation.
The related anti-terrorism rhetoric and counter-terrorism legislation directly impinge on the security that peaceful protesters face daily. The government reportedly positions authorities outside their homes, jobs and places of recreation in an effort to brazenly intimidate activists into changing their minds. This highlights the bravery exhibited by the nuclear plant opponents, such as Aidar Mubarakov, who took to the streets in protest despite reports of intimidating threats by the government.
The most prominent question that emerges from Mubarakov’s story and detention inquires into the current state of Kazakhstan’s politics. Is Kazakhstan sliding back into authoritarian rule, reviving the Soviet-style repression it once fought to escape and threatening the democratic future it has struggled to build? The answer is multifaceted. In recent years, Kazakhstan’s government has been critiqued internationally as repressive, particularly after it handled the Bloody January protests across the country in 2022. What began as peaceful protests against fuel prices erupted into violence when soldiers and armed vehicles shot at protesters, resulting in 238 casualties. The government attempted to mask the event through anti-terrorist rhetoric and the denial of lawyers to those who were arrested; however, internal and international human rights groups were quick to publicize the atrocities that occurred, leading to harsh criticism from international governments, with the U.S and EU criticizing the government’s actions. To this day, there remains little accountability for the 2022 events and the government administration’s failure to acknowledge its severe actions during and after the protests.
Despite the oppression, Kazakhstan’s current president advocates for increased citizen participation in local decision-making and has established the Constitutional Court to address public human rights appeals. Furthermore, while his government remains autocratic, the country is considered more open and free than its neighboring nations.
The current state of Mubarakov’s liberty remains ambiguous, with sources remaining difficult to authenticate. In Nov. 2025, the Appellate Court of Almaty reduced Mubarakov’s prison term from four years to two years of restricted freedom. However, the government refused to acquit him of his charges and to rescind its accusations and banned him from participating in public activities. The verdict was handed down in accordance with the principle that the protesters were inciting mass violence and distributing brochures opposing the power plant’s construction.
The most effective way to combat these kinds of human rights violations is to advocate alongside local organizations, through social media posts and reposts, online campaigns and contact with Kazakh groups and government organizations, such as Orda, Open Dialogue and Human Rights Watch. Additionally, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Kazakhstan (at gov.kz) offers an appeals page listing judicial leadership officials who can be contacted via email. Although these approaches may seem inefficient, they are steps toward the release of political prisoners in Kazakhstan. Ultimately, power belongs to the people, and in their hands they hold the key to change.
The autumn breezes of that fateful day in October were ephemeral, passing without notice. However, the actions enacted by Mubarakov and his colleagues against the referendum are permanent, establishing a potent opposition to the nuclear base implementation and the potentially disastrous repercussions it could provoke. While the referendum may have succeeded, the movement created by Mubarakov and those who protested alongside him will continue. Mubarakov’s detention is more than an arrest, but rather an illustration of the intensifying crackdown on political protesters in Kazakhstan and of the deep internal tensions testing the resilience of its democratic institutions.