The involvement of North Korean troops fighting on Russia’s side of the war in Ukraine is perplexing. Throughout its entire history, North Korea has never launched a foreign military intervention, so their presence in the Russian-Ukraine war is unprecedented. 

Russia is at a turning point in its history. With the war in Ukraine waging on for nearly three years, its ultimate status remains unclear; however, the war has undoubtedly questioned the U.S.-led global order. After the start of the invasion, Western nations immediately imposed trade and economic sanctions on Russia, effectively isolating it and reducing it to a pariah state similar to North Korea. 

As the war in Ukraine has gone on far longer than Russia anticipated, Russia has begun to run low on ammunition and manpower. Unwilling to back down on Ukraine, Moscow’s options for wartime trade have become largely restricted to the handful of other countries who have similarly been isolated from the Western financial world, such as Iran and North Korea. Russia has already been turning to Iran for thousands of cheap yet deadly drones throughout the war. As for North Korea, the country has spent decades preparing for a war with South Korea and the United States. As a result, outside of Russia itself, North Korea possesses the largest arsenal of artillery munitions of any country in the world. Realizing this and sharing a land border with North Korea, Putin saw a golden opportunity to restock on munitions by shipping artillery shells from Russia’s far east to the far west into Ukraine. 

In exchange, Russia agreed to give North Korea some of its significantly more advanced military technology compared to North Korea’s frozen in time Soviet military armaments. Previously, nearly the entire world including Russia was united in restricting trade with North Korea because of its nuclear weapons program. This restricted North Korea’s military from advancing into the modern day, especially compared to their South Korean counterpart. However, now that Russia has been ostracized by the Western world, its previous cooperation with Western powers has been abandoned, prompting Russia to seek new trading partners to counter its isolation.

The Russian Defence Minister visited Pyongyang in July 2023. Afterwards, Kim Jong Un traveled across the border to meet personally with Putin in September 2023. In summer 2024 Putin personally visited Kim on his own turf in Pyongyang for the first time in 24 years, pledging to support one another in the event of an attack on either country.

This marks a significant departure from North Korea’s previous attempts to normalize relations with the United States during the Trump administration, and realign its relations with Russia similarly as they were during the Cold War era. 

The details of Putin and Kim’s meetings are unknown, but the U.S. state department suggests that, since mid 2022, roughly 11,000 shipping containers have entered Russia from North Korea presumably carrying primarily munitions. Western estimates suggest that roughly 1.6 million to 6 million artillery shells have entered Russia from North Korea worth several billions of dollars. These shells are of debatable quality and reliability but have undoubtedly given Russia the edge in munitions while Russia restocks from their own factories. In October 2024, Western intelligence sources reported that roughly half of the Russian artillery shells used in Ukraine came from North Korea.

North Korea is arguably the most militarized country in the world. North Korea spends 36% of its GDP on military spending, which is nearly the same as Ukraine (37%) with an ongoing invasion across its territory. However, since North Korea is so impoverished, this is only a fraction of the spending the United States and South Korea spend on their militaries. 

Pyongyang knows that once Russia restores itself on munitions, its need for North Korea will diminish. As a result, in order to maintain the relationship and gain further military advances from Russia, North Korea is left offering Russia the only other thing they have that Russia is in need of: its massive reserves of soldiers. Approximately 30% of the entire North Korea population is either actively serving or in the reserves. All North Korean men are required to serve ten year terms while women are required to serve eight year terms. The country has more than 1.3 million personnel in their active duty army. This is almost as much as the 1.4 million U.S. personnel and more than Russia’s 1.1 million personnel.  

The New York Times estimated in October 2024 that approximately 115,000 Russian soldiers have been killed fighting in Ukraine, in addition to another 500,000 that have been wounded. Russia likely considered doing a larger mandate draft as Ukraine has done but it knows it would presumably make the war deeply unpopular. As a result, Moscow calculated the better option for itself is to give North Korea more technology in exchange for manpower. The Ukrainian military suspects that Moscow will use these North Korean troops to deploy in the Russian Kursk Oblast which Ukraine acquired in their counter offensive in August 2024. The presence of North Korean troops in Russian territory leads to frightening implications for the war and the rest of the world. 

Currently, the Ukraine-Russia war is at its worst point for Ukraine since the start of the war, with Russia slowly advancing further into Ukraine’s territory as Ukraine faces extreme artillery and manpower shortages. North Korean forces entering the Kursk Oblast would allow Russian troops to redeploy to the Russian offensive helping to increase their advances. The current North Korean troops are still untested with significant language barrier and operational differences to overcome. However, if North Korean soldiers prove effective it could suggest that these 10,000 troops are only the start of a much larger share of forces entering Russia to help the war effort. 

As for what this means outside of the Russian-Ukraine war, the Korean peninsula has become extremely precarious. In January 2024, Kim Jong Un formally called for an alteration to the North Korean constitution to remove all commitments to a peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula. Furthermore, he had the constitution changed to label South Korea as the nation’s “primary foe and invariable principle enemy.” In addition, he ordered the arch of reunification, a monument constructed in 2001 symbolizing Korea’s eventual reunification, to be destroyed. These moves effectively eliminate the long standing peaceful reunification of Korea from North Korea’s official policy. This has led several North Korea analysts to suggest that Kim Jong Un plans to go to war with South Korea. The publication does not suggest a specific when or how, only that Kim has made it in his mind to do so eventually. 

That being said, the South Korea military still far outclasses the North’s in almost every way. The rationale for North Korea to invade the South can be seen as extremely irrational. However, with the aid of advanced Russian technology in the form of advanced missiles, submarines, and more, South Korea is on high alert.

The involvement of North Korean troops in Russia’s war against Ukraine marks an unprecedented shift with significant implications for global security. For Russia, North Korea’s vast munitions and manpower alleviate critical shortages, enabling its prolonged offensive. For North Korea, the partnership offers advanced military technology, currently desperately needed by the Kim regime to bolster its aggressive ambitions. This alliance not only complicates Ukraine’s defense but also destabilizes the Korean peninsula, as Kim Jong Un dismantles the long standing peaceful reunification efforts and escalates hostile rhetoric toward South Korea. With authoritarian regimes deepening ties and defying international norms, the ripple effects of this partnership extend far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine, threatening to reshape regional dynamics and global power balances.

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Countries confident in each other’s COVID-19 coping capabilities have established bilateral corridors, or “travel bubbles” with each other, where the usual 14-day quarantine is often waived. The latest duo to attempt this is Singapore and Hong Kong, in what both regions claim is the “world’s first” reciprocal travel bubble to be launched on November 22. The implications are critical, not just for the travel industry, but for regional economics, politics and global recovery.

Despite their statements, Hong Kong and Singapore’s travel bubble is not the first to emerge from the pandemic. The term was first popularized back in May, when the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia opened their borders to each other. Citizens from the three countries could travel freely across borders, although those entering from countries other than the three neighboring Baltic states were required to enter into a 14-day quarantine. Other countries in the European Union soon followed by forming tentative bubbles of their own, though flare-ups of the virus later in the summer eventually led to the reversal of this decision. 

Similarly, Australia and New Zealand made a lot of noise in May when they announced that they would enact a travel bubble between the two countries in September. However, Australia’s spike in local cases in October has resulted in a one-way, unreciprocated relationship: New Zealanders are allowed into Australia without mandated quarantine, but not the other way around. Even in Asia, where the virus seems more tame, tourism-reliant countries have tried to negotiate bubbles — but many without success. Others have been forced to settle for essential business travel-only bubbles with tight restrictions. 

So how will the Singapore-Hong Kong bubble be any different? First, residents of both cities are exempt from any form of quarantine in the bilateral relationship. Leisure travel is welcomed; tourists can move freely in either city without providing an itinerary. Of course, travellers must pay out of their own pocket to test negative for the virus on both ends, though the relative latitude is the first of its kind in the Asia region, signalling nascent recovery.

A relationship between both areas was an obvious choice for one another. On a local level, the stringent COVID-19 measures in both have served each city well; community cases have consistently stayed in the single digits over the past month. Geographically, their small size means there is no need for differing rules across states, unlike in Australia. The small but robust economies of both are also highly dependent on trade, finance, and tourism. As an added bonus, both are former colonies of the British Empire with a Chinese majority population. Singapore’s Transport Minister noted that aside from logistics, governments also need to be aware of citizens’ sentiments — and this shared history between Hong Kong and Singapore may help to boost citizens’ perception of the other city. 

Digging deeper, establishing such a loose bubble would require the duo to have faith in each other’s health and administrative systems, ensuring that an outbreak in one city would be reported and contained before it spread into the other’s borders. With COVID-19, such mutual trust is essential as citizen’s lives and the well-being of both economies are on the line. Singapore and Hong Kong would find it easier to trust each other with so many similarities, on top of their “long-time close and cordial co-operation on many fronts” as emphasised by the Hong Kong government. 

Larger political considerations are involved as well. Hong Kong’s borders have been largely shut since February. Opening their borders to neighboring mainland China first would make sense, but may inflame Hong Kongers in the face of rising anti-mainland sentiments. China may also be unwilling to endanger their handle on the virus as Hong Kong still has a small number of cases. Overseas, Taiwan and Japan tops the list for Hong Kongers’ most beloved travel destinations. However, making a deal with either risks irritating Beijing due to China’s tense relationship with both East Asian territories. Thus, Singapore is a safe choice to begin with. 

On the other hand, Singapore has a number of green lanes with Asian countries that only permit business travel, including China. A bubble with Hong Kong would be a practical move to eventually break into the valuable tourism market of China. Opening up to each other would alleviate economic woes, as the travel industry affects numerous sectors. If the bubble remains successful, Singapore and Hong Kong might be able to woo the big fish that is China and kick-start their economies, which are both currently in a concerning recession. 

Aside from benefiting themselves, the pair’s travel bubble sets a model for recovery in the Asia Pacific. Though it’s a small bubble that involves small places and limited amounts of cross-border travel, other Asian countries ought to take note from this landmark experimental run, with the goal of eventually opening their own travel bubbles. When that happens, Singapore and Hong Kong’s statuses as major aviation hubs would help facilitate transit fights and ramp up travel in the area. As 80% of tourists to Asia Pacific come from within the region, the resurrection of Asia’s travel industry is vital to pulling countries out of COVID-19 induced recessions. However, much remains to be said about the efficacy of the bubble, as the relationship between Singapore and Hong Kong will commence later this month.

In a pre-vaccine COVID-19 world, reopening borders is an essential first step to recovery. Business travel has somewhat resumed in Asia, though it is infrequent and restricted. Singapore and Hong Kong’s deal for leisure travel is an unprecedented and bold move that indicates Asia’s head start in the race to normalcy. As these Asian countries navigate bubble negotiations, they would do well to learn from this case study of cross-border relations.

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