The election of President Donald Trump was a shock and his policies towards Cuba seek to reverse all the progress of his predecessor, Barack Obama. However, another presidential election is on the horizon. In 2020, the United States will elect a new leader. If Donald Trump is re-elected, we can expect this trajectory of restrictions to continue. If a more liberal president takes the oval office, there is a possibility that relations with Cuba will improve and interaction between the two nations will increase. Yet, the next American president is not the only variable in play. Miguel Diaz-Canel is the new president of Cuba. While he was voted into office, he was hand-picked by Fidel Castro to take over the regime. When asked about the island’s revolutionary politics by American lawmakers his response was only “I was born in 1960 after the revolution. I’m not the best person to answer your questions on that subject” (Ahmed-Robles). Where does this new president stand? It is too early to know for sure. 

Today the Cuban people enjoy the growing tourism industry, especially if they are employed by it. I’ve had the opportunity to talk to people from different parts of the tourism industry; including our Airbnb host, taxi drivers, and street vendors in Old Havana. Everyone has said something similar: they like the tourists because they provide the money on which they live and that they hope tourism continues to grow. One person even went so far as to say that they hope Trump doesn’t get re-elected and that the next United States president has a soft heart for Cuba. Unfortunately, tourism is the only industry in Cuba that is seeing success. Booming tourism has been great for many, but it is dangerous because if there is a change in the international climate and tourism declines the Cuban economy will fail. 

Another idea of how tourism can help the Cuban people is an expansion of the private sector. Our guide works for the government and the taxis are part of a government-owned company. If these people could have their own businesses – like the Airbnb’s and restaurants – they would have more money and more success. One taxi driver told us that during the Obama presidency many Americans came to Cuba and brought with them their ideas of capitalism. This created a hunger in many Cubans to become entrepreneurs. Through increased contact with Americans, I think that the Cuban people will want the same rights as citizens have in America, especially in terms of private property and economics. 

The people in the tourism industry want there to be more American tourists in the future and want to have the ability to start their own businesses (with more options than just an Airbnb or restaurant). However, new executive orders from the Trump Administration on June 5th, 2018 bring American tourism to a standstill. The regulations prohibit American cruise ships, yachts, and private planes from flying to the island. Travel to Cuba under a United States passport is limited to service missions for the Cuban people; this does not include educational travel or family visits. It is estimated that Cuba will lose over $130 million in revenue due to this change. The reasoning for these regulations is rooted in the Cold War narrative and Cuba being the “communist stronghold of the Western hemisphere”2. Additionally, the island’s relationship with President Maduro of Venezuela is a point of severe contention and the Trump Administration has stated that they are using these regulations as economic pressure to force Cuba to submit to the United States regarding Venezuela. Regardless of your political leanings, the facts of this situation must be addressed. The embargo on Cuba that began during the Kennedy Administration and held in place until Obama’s reforms beginning in 20143. While the Cuban economy suffered, it did not produce regime change or a shift in its foreign policy. Why would we expect the outcome to be different now? The lack of tourism hurts the Cuban people, not the Cuban government. The only privatized sectors in Cuba (Airbnb, restaurants) rely heavily on tourists as customers. Without access to clients this budding capitalism will dry up. The Trump Administration has given the Cuban people a reason to hate the American government once again. Their government will blame its issues on the United States, and the cycle of Cuba being in the hands of dictators rather than its own people will continue.

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In January 2014, North Korea announced that the annual Pyongyang Marathon would be open to amateur foreign runners. (In previous years, the event was only open to elite foreign runners.) Pyongyang seemed to be finally opening up to the rest of the world by hosting a public sporting event—a potentially fun and sportsmanlike way for foreigners to see North Korea. Even Americans, North Koreans’ greatest enemies, were allowed to register in a seemingly apolitical gesture. There were, of course, restrictions for all foreign runners, including a three-hour time limit for the full marathon and mandatory lodging at state-sanctioned hotels. To get into the marathon, runners had to register via a North Korean tour agency like the China-based Koryo Tours, a standard procedure for all tourists traveling to North Korea. The 2014 event was quite successful by North Korean standards: over 300 participants ran the 42-kilometer course through the nation’s capital. 

The anticipation for the 2015 marathon on April 12 was even higher. The North Korean government opened up several hundred spots in the race for foreigners and even disseminated a bizarre promotional video to a remixed version of A-Ha!’s Take On Me. Over 400 tourists registered for the race through Koryo Tours alone. That is, until the North Korean authorities banned foreigners from entering the country due to the Ebola scare. Beginning in October 2014, North Korea restricted its borders and quarantined all foreigners for 21 days. The race was not exempt from these constraints and all foreigners were banned from joining.

According to North Korean propaganda, Ebola is a deadly virus created by the US military to promote its interests abroad and undermine North Korea. With this mindset, it comes as no surprise that North Korea set up harsh restrictions against all foreigners, including those from countries with no exposure to the virus. In early March, the government finally lifted the travel ban and allowed foreigners to continue with their marathon tourism plans. However, the damage was already done. Although some runners had expected stumbling blocks during the registration process and adopted a “go with the flow” attitude, other runners canceled their reservations and race registrations. One tour group, Uri Tours, extended their registration deadline to March 20, but flights out of both Shanghai and Beijing were almost completely full. The only available flights were through Air Koryo, a poorly rated North Korean airline. Tour companies, marathon runners and spectators all got the short end of the stick because of North Korea’s politicized reaction to the Ebola virus. Ultimately, Pyongyang was able to recover from the drama; by April 12, the race had enough registered foreign runners (650) to set a record for its short history.

However, the North Korean government has bigger problems to worry about than the success of its marque marathon. The Pyongyang Marathon fell during a sensitive time; the DPRK’s relationship with the rest of the world has been particularly rocky since February 2013 when the country launched its third nuclear test. Since then, Kim Jong Un and his government have continually threatened their opponents with military force. The 2014 UN report on human rights abuses in the country added even more pressure; in October and November, the UN repeatedly recommended that the North Korean leadership be referred to the International Criminal Court. As expected, the government reacted negatively to these accusations against its supreme leader, calling the report “political fraud.” Furthermore, in March, the US and South Korean participated in joint military exercises, a practice that always elicits an angered response from the North Korean leadership. The military exercises are a display of the heavy military presence at the southern end of the DMZ and a reminder of exactly what North Korea is up against. Unfortunately, the military exercises sparked violent retribution. In March, a South Korean man attacked the US Ambassador to South Korea, Mark Lipper, claiming to be fighting for North-South reunification. The North Korean government called it “just punishment for US warmongers.” North Korea used similar language during the Sony hacks that involved the film “The Interview.”

The Pyongyang Marathon might have been a success for the country’s tourism industry, and even a sign of a thawing relationship; however, the race did not reveal any fundamental changes in the North Korean regime. It remains authoritarian and dependent on the propagation of a perceived conflict with the US and its allies to preserve domestic stability.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors, or governors.

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