Katya Lopatko: A Win for Centrists

“On Sunday, the people of France annoyingly retained their traditional right to claim intellectual superiority over Americans.” The New Yorker’s celebrated political satirist Andy Borowitz summed up the dramatic and drawn-out French election with this quip, but French seeking to maintain cultural superiority are not the only ones breathing sighs of relief this morning. Moderates and centrists all around the world are cheering; neoliberalism lives on in an age of right-wing populism hysteria dominating political discourse.

Macron is untraditional in all ways but policy–the banker turned politician has championed policies that would not be out of place on any American Democratic platform. Though he represents a rupture for French politics, clearly breaking from the Socialists, the traditional Left, Macron’s outsider credentials come from his youth, his scandalous relationship, and his new En Marche! party. Appearances aside, he is not a populist candidate–but in an age when populism has such an ugly, xenophobic face, maybe that’s not such a bad thing.

Miles Malley: Macron’s Foreign Policy Inexperience 

When it comes to domestic economic issues, there is little doubt that Emmanuel Macron knows what he is talking about, whether you agree with him or not. He comes in with more knowledge of the financial sector than maybe any other French President has had at the time of their election. Unfortunately, this knowledge does not seem to translate to foreign-policy expertise. According to sources, Macron had to cancel two different major foreign-policy interviews with French newspapers out of fear that he wasn’t prepared enough.

In this vein, Macron comes into office with an essentially blank-slate foreign policy doctrine. As the US is witnessing with Trump (who, by comparison, makes Macron look like a foreign policy guru) this means that first impressions with other countries can potentially shape entire policies and politics. This makes for a fascinating, if not dangerous, relationship between Macron and Putin’s Russia, who Macron and his team have publicly blamed for the President-elect’s hacked emails, rumors of homosexuality, and a barrage of other tactics intended to swing the election. Whether this all has turned Macron into a reactionary Russian-hawk is now one of the biggest foreign policy questions in all of Europe.

Aziza Kasumov: Not as Popular as you Think

France, on Sunday, seemed peacefully unified after centrist and liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election with a two-third majority of the vote over Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the extreme right. As Macron vowed to respect his political opponents, protesters, for the most part, stayed off the streets, sending an image into the world of a country that seemed, at least for the moment, at ease with itself, pressing “pause” on its internal divisions.

But let’s take a closer look at the numbers: Yes, Macron won with 66 percent of the vote, leaving Le Pen with only 34 percent. Yet more than one out of three French eligible voters either abstained (25.4 percent) or cast a spoilt ballot paper (12 percent). This shrinks Macron’s votes to less than 50 percent (41.4 percent, to be precise) of the total number of in theory available ballots — a record low. Only in 1969, when two center-right candidates made it to the run-off in the second round, the rate of abstention was higher than last Sunday. This election’s number of spoilt ballot papers, on the other hand, proved to be at an all-time record for the French Republic. Macron’s win wasn’t one of true conviction — and that will be a fragile fundament for a presidency that builds on its popular-vote legitimacy unlike any other in the Western world.

Will Macron be able to increase his margin of popular support? It depends on the success of his proposed policies and whether he’ll be able to implement them through legislative and European support. One thing, however, is for sure: The protesters who spared him on Sunday instead marched the streets on Monday. And they surely won’t cease to criticize him throughout the next five years.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors or governors.

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“Their world is crumbling. Ours is being built.”  The vice-president of France’s far-right, populist Front National (FN) party tweeted this message on November 9, as Donald Trump’s victory became evident. The FN’s prominence in the upcoming French presidential election poses yet another threat to the globalized, liberal world order which has recently endured two successive blows: Brexit and the election of President Trump. If the FN’s candidate, Marine Le Pen, becomes the next French president, that will be a third strike with immediate consequences for the European Union, and far-reaching effects for the world.

The French presidential race is heating up; all major political parties have selected their final candidates. Les Républicains (the conservative, center-right party) have chosen François Fillon. The FN’s unopposed candidate is Marine Le Pen. Current President Hollande’s ailing Socialistes swung left in primaries with the victory of candidate Benoît Hamon. Emmanuel Macron, former economy minister in President Hollande’s government, has launched an independent campaign promoting center-left principles. Finally, Jean-Luc Mélenchon will run as the candidate for the Communist party.

Similarities have emerged between the U.S. election cycle and the French campaigns. Marine Le Pen is the clear analogue to Donald Trump. Le Pen’s FN is a party of “France-first” isolationists and populists who feed on fears about immigration and the “islamization” of France. Though the Républicain François Fillon has many important differences from Hillary Clinton, both can be portrayed as the politically experienced “insider” candidate as well as reasonably centrist picks. Rather like Clinton, Fillon may be brought down by a scandal his campaign cannot shake – an allegation that Fillon’s wife Penelope did no real work while drawing an official salary as Fillon’s parliamentary assistant. The “Penelopegate” scandal threatens to ruin Fillon’s chances, damaging his anti-corruption reputation and challenging his small-government platform.

If Fillon’s scandal brings down his campaign, it will be up to either a candidate from the left or the independent Macron to counter Le Pen. Le Pen is widely expected to make it through the first round of elections in April, so the real challenge will occur during the runoff. The French presidential election occurs in two rounds, with the second round functioning as a runoff between the two candidates with the highest percentages of the vote from the first round.

The run-off mechanism is a useful structure. It allows voters to make their voice heard in the first round, but then cast a vote “against” one candidate rather than “for” the other in the second round to block a candidate viewed as unsuitable. The time between the two elections allows political leaders to rally their electorates to do just that. For example in 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s father and former head of the FN, captured enough votes to make it to the second round of voting against conservative Jacques Chirac. Massive popular protests followed, and socialists and conservatives rallied together to defeat Le Pen in a historic landslide. Chirac was elected with over 82% of the vote.

The best initial hope was that something similar would occur this year; that whether Fillon, Macron, Hamon, or Mélenchon was left standing to counter Le Pen, all the candidates’ former supporters would rally together to elect anyone but Le Pen. However, Emmanuel Macron’s unprecedented success as an independent candidate has redefined the story of this election cycle. Macron has combined economic reformism, social liberalism, and–perhaps most importantly–personal dynamism while on the campaign trail.

In an election cycle where electing someone, anyone other than Le Pen was thought to be the best case scenario, Macron has introduced an “outsider” political movement that is not based on fear and exclusion. Practically, Macron as President could invigorate the French economy, promote tolerance for immigrants in France, and strengthen the European Union. Symbolically, Macron suggests something even more important: that a centrist political movement might inspire the public and win. If Macron succeeds, he will have proven that the popular movement is not only a tool of the far right.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors or governors.

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“The decision of the American people must be interpreted as the victory of freedom, the freedom of a sovereign people”, Marine Le Pen tweeted just hours after president-elect Donald Trump locked down the 270 electoral votes that set him on his way to the Oval Office. Although Le Pen on average receives only around 300 retweets compared to Trump’s 3,000, her active presence on social media communicates her wish to follow in the footsteps of the business mogul. In the aftermath of the 2016 US presidential election that sent shockwaves around the world, many populist leaders in Europe voiced their support for the President-elect. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front party and a popular spokeswoman of the far-right movement in Europe, took it one step further by not only praising Trump’s words and actions, but also mimicking them. If Le Pen proceeds to sweep the French presidential election this year, the US-French alliance will be stronger than ever, as Trump and Le Pen take their vows and metaphorically sign off on a four-year contract of mutual understanding and compatibility.

Modern Populism in Europe

The global financial crisis of 2008 was the trigger that set populist politics in Europe into motion. Right-wing parties had always existed in Europe, but never gained much momentum. Some regarded them as “taboo” and associated with “neo-Nazism”. However, as unemployment rates skyrocketed and countries faced severe economic slowdowns and piling national debts, many in Europe lost faith in left-wing politics. The increase in globalization created antipathies among the people who felt they were being cheated at their own game. Suddenly, Austria’s Freedom Party and France’s National Front party became serious candidates on the election ballot. The final spark that lit the fuse of populism in Europe was the refugee crisis that caused over a million migrants to pour into countries still recovering from their own crises. Newspaper headlines and twitter feeds were flooded with charged, nationalist rhetoric, stirring up anger and resentment in the public.

The most recent election cycle in the United States has directly mirrored Europe’s era of populism. Back in 2010, anti-Islamic sentiments were running high throughout the continent. Some women werefined for wearing a niqab, while a Danish newspaper ridiculed the Prophet Muhammad through a series of hateful cartoons. President Trump channeled the same hatred towards the Muslim community when on January 27^th  he signed an executive order banning refugees and “nationals of seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States for at least the next 90 days by executive order.” Additionally, one of the running slogans of Austria’s Freedom Party was the simple phrase “Austria First”. This certainly echoes Trump’s tweet on July 19^th, 2016 when he wrote “Such a great honor to be the Republican Nominee for President of the United States. I will work hard and never let you down! AMERICA FIRST.” These and other similarities demonstrate America and Europe’s hand-in-hand progression into the dangerous territory of self-absorbed, hateful politics. France has taken the vitriolic allegiance one step further.

France and America: Conjoined Twins    

Apart from incessant tweets, many aspects of Marine Le Pen’s political platform directly epitomize those of Trump’s. Just as Trump has called for automotive factories (specifically Ford) to be moved to the US from Mexico, Le Pen announced an identical plan “to repatriate production of French motor vehicles and other industrial goods”. This high-level protectionism has been a hallmark of populist politics in the past years. Political leaders like Le Pen believe that homemade production of national goods is a form of “economic patriotism” which will ultimately create new jobs and lessen international competition. Although protecting jobs in one’s own country is advantageous, it should not come at the expense of turning away foreign immigrants while placing high tariffs on imported goods. Because international markets are so entangled with each other in today’s global economy, many fail to perceive how severely another country’s market collapse could affect the American economy. If Trump severs important economic ties with either Mexico or China, the US will suffer the consequences. As reporter James Poulos from The Week states, “If you think immigration, wage stagnation, and drug crime are problems in the U.S. now, consider the consequences if China’s tanking economy takes down Mexico’s, too”. To this, the populists would respond with calls to secure their country’s borders.

Although building walls and strengthening border security does not fix the root cause of illegal immigration, right-wing leaders like Le Pen and Trump continue to live in their own delusion.  Le Pen and Trump have uttered almost identical messages on this issue. Both politicians have engaged in slanderous name-calling of the immigrants crossing over their countries’ borders, and both have accepted strong borders as the solution to fight illegal immigration. Shortly after Trump called for building a wall along America’s southern border, Le Pen echoed his words in a statement: “it is essential that France gets back control of its national borders once and for all. Without borders, neither defense nor security is possible”.

Trump and Le Pen’s hatred does not only extend to refugees, but also to the elitist establishment. During his campaign, Trump constantly reiterated the fact that he is an outsider, a man who can change the political climate in Washington D.C., and a man who can give the power back to the people. Much of this establishment happens to be Jewish, suddenly shifting Trump’s rhetoric from being anti-establishment to vaguely anti-Semitic. Although Trump may not be explicitly anti-Semitic considering he has a (recently converted) Jewish daughter, son-in-law, and grandchildren, many of his right-wing supporters certainly are. Le Pen and the National Front party have adopted virtually the same stance toward the “Jewish establishment” as Trump. Capitalizing on Francois Hollande’s low approval ratings, terrorist incidents, and a weak euro, Le Pen has fueled a wide hatred towards the establishment in France and the European Union. Catherine Heron, a Paris-based corporate communications manager shared that “people feel that the government and politicians in general are not up to their task anymore.” It is perfectly justified to be dissatisfied with one’s own government if one’s nation remains economically stagnant, is plagued by terrorist attacks, and is overcome with a general sense of insecurity. However, the National Front party’s roots traditionally lie in anti-Semitic and xenophobic rhetoric. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the father of Marine Le Pen and former head of the National Front Party, was recently accused of “inciting hatred for anti-Semitic statements”.

Although the two politicians feel they are moving their countries forward by securing jobs for their people and rekindling patriotism, their resistance to globalization and modernization will ultimately redact advancements made by their countries in the past few decades. In October  2015, Marine Le Pen said in a statement “Only the [National Front party] plans to give back to France those essential weapons [such as control of its national budget and borders]to help it fight in a globalized world and achieve innovation and re-industrialization.” Despite the fact that all nations require secure borders to ensure their sovereignty, demonizing and forcing the expulsion of immigrants is completely contrary to building up a strong economy and ensuring job security. Some opponents of immigration claim that it negatively impacts the economy as an increase in the “labor supply reduces wages as workers compete in an increasingly crowded economy”. This logic has been consistently rejected by economists who point to the fact that native-born citizens and immigrants compete for different jobs requiring different skill-sets. If these two groups compete for the same job, businesses usually respond by expanding their enterprise, thereby creating more job opportunities rather than less. A study by the National Bureau for Economic Research actually shows that immigration “reduces the share of offshored jobs”, thereby encouraging job creation in the United States. It is because of immigrants that jobs are being created on native soil in the first place.

Implications of a Flawed Logic

Trump’s election to the presidency came as a shock to the nation, but the executive orders signed within his first week in office were no less shocking. It has become incredibly concerning that more and more populist leaders in Europe like Marine Le Pen have become Trump policy parrots. Trump has set off a fuse among his own people that has been sparked by his upsetting and discriminatory policies. Major American cities are already experiencing the birth of a citizen-led revolution through their protests.

Le Pen as President would not only normalize discriminatory policies within France, but could send the nation back to a pre-Napoleon era of popular uprisings and violent insurrections. In light of presidential competitor François Fillon’s fraud and corruption scandal, Le Pen has a much better chance of securing the presidential office. This scenario strongly echoes the Hillary Clinton’s email scandal that may have cost her the election, allowing Donald Trump to secure crucial votes in swing states. If Le Pen really does win this election, the world should expect a stronger, more radical alliance between the US and France.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors or governors.

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