These are all terms that have been thrown around with increasing anger and fear, especially as the United States is experiencing a frightening increase in the frequency of cyberattacks carried out by foreign hackers. But little is known about the real implications of these hacks and the dangerous potential it has moving forward. 

Most recently, the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed that it was breached by the Sunburst Hack in a supply-chain attack, which, as of January 5, has been attributed to Russian hacker groups like APT29 (also known as CozyBear). More than 18,000 customers installed malware in an update for the popular software, Orion, unknown to its creator, the Texas-based SolarWinds company. Orion is an IT management software used by businesses, labs, and organizations to scale, manage networks, and analyze data on one platform. It is able to be deployed on other platforms too, one of which is the prominent Microsoft Azure, one of the best public cloud computing platforms on the market. Orion is used by nearly all the Fortune 500 companies, including the New York Times, Boeing, and Los Alamos National Laboratory where Nuclear Weapons are designed. 

According to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency, this breach was “highly complex and challenging,” damaging “critical infrastructure” and posing a great threat to the national security of the country. And all it took was for the hackers to inject a snippet of code into the software installation, giving them access to confidential information in companies and government agencies for months. Upon downloading updates, SolarWinds’ customers unknowingly installed malicious software, and were being monitored by the attackers since March, giving them well over eight months to collect confidential information. Even after the attack was identified, exactly who was affected and what information was stolen remains ambiguous. 

Of the 18,000 users who installed the malware, Microsoft’s antivirus software identified nearly 40 of its customers who were specifically targeted in the attack, including government agencies, companies and think tanks. Federal agencies and cabinet branches like the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Departments of Homeland Security, State, Defense and Commerce were all attacked. 

Although there is no evidence indicating intention of causing direct real-world damage, Microsoft’s president Brad Smith noted that the attack was “remarkable for its scope, sophistication and impact,” and that it “represents an act of recklessness that created a serious technological vulnerability for the United States and the world.” 

The Disintegration of American Democracy

In recent years, the growing prominence of cyberattacks has been extremely effective in inciting widespread chaos and sowing deep-seeded distrust in American democracy. Some of the largest targets of political cyberattacks are U.S. government agencies that deal with information pertaining to U.S. elections. 

In the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, many groups of Russian hackers “probed state voter databases for insecurities” and hacked into the Clinton campaign, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and several other key government groups. As confirmed by the U.S. intelligence community and supported by then-Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the 2016 cyber attacks aimed to “damage the Clinton campaign” and boost the Trump campaign while sowing chaos into the American democracy. 

However, while Time reports that the Russians did “target voter registration systems or state websites in at least 21 states,” and stole hundreds of thousands of voters’ personal information, they did not alter the actual vote count or election infrastructure. Though no votes were directly changed, the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee’s report said that the Russians “were able to gain access to restricted elements of election infrastructure” and “were in a position to, at a minimum, alter or delete voter registration data.”

According to the Brookings Institution, despite possibly having the technical ability to alter votes, it is unlikely that Russia or other countries like China and Iran have done so yet, likely in the interest of maintaining political amity. According to experts, they are instead more likely seeking to spread disinformation and indirectly feed into the distrust and polarization among Americans, which could even be more detrimental than altering the outcome of the actual election. Through disinformation, hackers have managed to shake the fundamental backbone of American democracy, causing citizens’ trust in the government to decline to below 20%. For Russia, the accumulation of information is a continual threat to the United States and a demonstration of the country’s growing power and increased cyber capabilities.

From fabricating conspiracies like “Pizzagate” to spreading false news about election rigging, U.S. citizens’ confidence in the election system has turned on its head by indirect online cyberattacks that go largely unregulated by law. According to Director of Strategic Threat at Darktrace Marcus Fowler, who spent 15 years at the CIA developing global cyber operations, adversaries have learned to use disinformation with surgical precision that allows hackers to “focus on a single issue, such as sowing doubt about the validity of the U.S. elections, raising assertions about the possibility of widespread election fraud, and suggesting that some methods of voting may be corrupt.” Additionally, the effects of disinformation are further exacerbated by the polarizing bubbles formed by social media exposure, limiting users’ exposure to those of similar beliefs. 

Ultimately, American democracy is nothing without voters’ faith in it and a secure system is pointless if citizens lose the confidence to participate in it. By inciting chaos through seemingly harmless cyberattacks, the hackers would be achieving their goal without even directly altering votes. As such, rebuilding trust in the election system must be of utmost priority because the best offense on the part of citizens is informed participation. 

The Physical Danger of Cyberattacks

For now, cyberattacks seem to be entrenched in espionage and the political fight for confidential information, but it is critical to remember that these attacks have the potential to become a much more tangible threat in the new era of technological warfare. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy is responsible for managing nuclear weapons and has control over some of the deadliest weapons in the world. The breach on that department could have potentially devolved into an increasingly dangerous situation.

Cyberattacks also pose a threat to the safety of innocent civilians if utilized recklessly, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. As early as March 2020, cyberattackers targeted hospitals and public health authorities like the World Health Organization. Prominent companies involved in COVID-19 vaccine research have also been impacted by hackers from the Russian hacker group, Strontium, and North Korean groups, Zinc and Cerium. Cybersecurity breaches of hospitals are often ransomware attacks, where hackers “encrypt data and hold it hostage until the victim pays a ransom,” which creates a delay of access to critical patient information. This delay can impede timely treatment, which in September, resulted in the “first known death from a cyberattack.” In a matter of nanoseconds, cyberattacks can undermine the treatment of thousands of hospitals across the world. On a larger scale, these hacks could pose serious threats to the backbone of the entire healthcare system, potentially costing countless lives.

Ultimately, there is an extremely long road ahead for cybersecurity developments. This may be only the start of a much longer cyber-arms race which has the potential to pose threats even greater than the traditional arms race. Thus, improving cybersecurity is imperative, but the topic must be strategically addressed to avoid deterring confidence in the election system. 

With the 2020 presidential election now over and a new administration in office, the best time to thoroughly address cybersecurity improvements may be between now and the next major election when critical discussion about the matter will not impulsively dissuade voter confidence. Although education and discourse around these topics are imperative, it’s also important to ensure that cybersecurity concerns do not deter voters amidst the high strung tensions of elections. 

Strengthening cybersecurity and educating the public will be crucial to ensuring the safety of the nation, preserving American democracy, and paving the way for greater cyberattack prevention as we enter a new era of technological warfare. 

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Venezuela’s recent downward spiral illustrates the profound economic and political effects oil price fluctuations have on the world’s oil-producing countries. Venezuela’s economic crisis continues to go from bad to worse. The Venezuelan Bolivarian socialist economy has collapsed from a fatal collision of low oil prices and poor economic policy. The result is economic chaos, from rampant inflation to import fraud to shortages of basic consumer necessities. As the economy plummets, political unrest builds in Venezuela.

Current president Nicolas Maduro, Hugo Chavez’s handpicked successor, has sought to continue the Chavez socialist dream and align himself squarely with the revolutionary leader’s popularity and charisma. However, as falling oil prices have made government spending (especially spending on major social programs) unsustainable and destroyed the economy, Maduro has been confronted with the failure of his political vision. He has turned to attacks on political opposition to appear strong and United States-bashing and conspiracy theories to distract his people—for example, claiming that, “there’s a world campaign against Venezuela.” Recovery for Venezuela will not come easily or at all as long as sound economic policy comes second to rhetoric, and the nation’s economic and political instability will have implications for both South America and the United States’ interests in the region.

The drop in oil prices dented the economies of many oil-producing countries around the world and had an especially significant effect on highly oil-dependent economies like Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela’s economy—Venezuela’s petroleum revenues account for about 50% of the country’s GDP and contribute more than 95% of the country’s hard currency income. It has been estimated that President Maduro’s government will require oil prices of about $117 a barrel in 2015 just to break even with government spending. As oil prices hover around $60, the economy faces a fiscal chasm.

The revenue-budget gap has been made much, much worse by historically poor economic policy. For example, strict currency controls (including an overvalued, three-tiered dollar-to-bolivar exchange rate) along with a heavily import-reliant economy have fueled a raging currency black market, incentivized fraudulent imports and created shortages of essential consumer goods like food and medicine. These extreme shortages have been created by several factors including a lack of diversified domestic production, price controls and scarce funds with which to pay for imports. The scarceness of consumer goods has truly brought the economic crisis home for ordinary Venezuelans who frequently must do without or wait in extremely long shopping lines. In February, Venezuelan officials at last announced and began to implement a plan to tackle one major political roadblock and retool currency controls—but this change may well be too little, too late.

Meanwhile, the economic crash has evolved into political instability, with massive street protests rocking Caracas since February 2014. Protestors, mainly students, have focused on social and economic problems like the collapsing economy and shortages of basic necessities. Although protest-associated violence seems to have peaked in early 2014, the causes of Venezuelan instability have not been addressed; Venezuela’s economy remains dire, Maduro’s approval ratings are around 25%, and the fairly recent imprisonment of well-known opposition leaders such as the mayor of Caracas has amplified public outrage. Smaller protests and demonstrations continue to occur and the country teeters on the brink of fresh unrest, while political opposition groups and leaders remain highly visible and vocal. Maduro does not fully control the media or public political debate, and will likely continue to face noisy opposition and low approval ratings.

Distract, deny and blame has been Maduro’s chosen response to political upheaval—Maduro has become a bit of a conspiracy theorist, claiming that the imperialist US government is plotting a coup against him, creating artificial instability and threatening Venezuela’s statehood. The Obama administration’s first major response was a March Executive Order that declared Venezuela a national security threat and placed sanctions on seven Venezuelan officials accused of corruption and violating human rights. Maduro sought to make political hay out of this move via noisily aggrieved measures such as starting a 10-million signature petition drive (to be presented to President Obama at April’s Summit of the Americas) and banning several US diplomats from the country, saying, “They can’t come to Venezuela because they are terrorists”. Such scapegoating techniques have neither significantly improved his domestic approval ratings nor done anything at all to address the real economic, political and social problems Venezuela faces. Meanwhile, Maduro has sought to enhance his personal power, winning expanded decree powers in the name of “anti-imperialism” in the face of supposed US aggression.

Venezuela is in the midst of a storm of economic disaster and political turmoil, made much worse by falling oil prices but inseparable from corruption, deceit and mismanagement in politics. As President Maduro fails to implement substantive political and social reforms or practical solutions to the country’s economic problems, Venezuela will remain a domestically unsteady and destabilizing force in South America. The United States will also remain closely involved as Maduro works to dodge blame and incriminate US “imperialism”, and as the US tries to achieve policy objectives in proximate countries, such as attempting to normalize relations with Cuba. Of all of the world’s petro economies dented by the oil price dive, Venezuela has fallen fastest, loudest and hardest because, in Venezuela, instability runs deeper than oil. President Maduro’s Chavez-socialist policies and interest in building personal power have historically trumped realistic economic policy. Venezuela today combines this problem of governance with collapsed oil prices—economic chaos and political unrest has been and will continue to be the result.

The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect those of the Glimpse from the Globe staff, editors, or governors.

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