Brazil, a pioneer for the Global South and Latin America’s self-proclaimed regional leader, has long been recognized as a potential power in the international system. Initiating its regional-leader trajectory in the 1930s after its adoption of the “national-developmentalist” paradigm, one based on the foundations of industry, Brazil endorsed the promotion of domestic markets through the employment of import substitution tactics, and centre-periphery. Yet the nation’s failed attempts to live up to its full potential in influencing global events have proven insufficient, time and time again. Regional treaties with futuristic, promising proposals such as the Treaty of Asuncion (1991) operated well in their primary years, yet performance from all member countries stagnated as commitment from partner states became less important in their individual agendas — the Treaty of Asuncion dispersing in the late 1990s due to Brazil’s economic crisis whose effect rippled all throughout the region, including in the Argentinian economy’s collapse in 2001. 

In attempts to attain such a goal of regional influence, two diverging approaches were employed: under liberal leadership, Brazil’s attempt at recognition came from avant-garde peacekeeping and notable humanitarian proposals from 1995-2016, whereas under conservative administration, the attempt was directed towards Brazil’s potential economic power in commodity trading. Regardless of whichever approach was taken, success rates have proven inconsistent, with policies not being carried out, agreements being dismantled and audacious claims being contested. Under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2018 through 2022, the country’s agenda stayed away from regional power and dove deeper into domestic stability given the COVID-19 pandemic and its substantial effects on economies worldwide. With the drastic leadership change from the radical conservative president Jair Bolsonaro, back to extreme liberal leadership under current president Luis Ignacio “Lula” da Silva in Jan 2023, nonetheless, Brazil’s policy agenda returned to the importance of growing regional and international power. 

Amongst many, one of President Lula’s first proposals was the establishment of a joint currency with Brazil’s neighbor and trading partner, Argentina. The currency that would be titled “The Sur” would not be used as a widespread currency. Instead, it would “be a common denominator of trade exchanges,” as understood by Fabio Terra, professor of Economics at the Federal University of ABC. 

Analyzing the currency implementation through different lenses highlights the conflicting outcomes for Argentina and Brazil, with a clear winner and loser in sight. 

 For Argentina, who has been suffering from seemingly-limitless levels of annual inflation approaching 100%, while also owing a $40 billion debt to the IMF for a bailout in 2018, the joint currency approach seems like an efficient bandage on the gaping wound of international debt. For Brazil, nonetheless, binding its monetary flows to such an unstable neighbor would be tying an anchor to a rapidly sinking boat. 

On the other hand, the countries’ bilateral trade is expanding, even “reaching $26.4bn in the first 11 months of last year, up nearly 21 percent on the same period in 2021,” according to the Financial Times. This may motivate the joint currency as a supporting booster between both economies. Yet, it only accounts for 6.5% of their combined gross domestic product. With trade being a crucial primary source of income for Brazil, the establishment of the Sur motivated by facilitated trade with Argentina is no trade-off given its detriments.  In addition, the sectors that pioneer trade in the two countries diverge immensely, from industrial commodities to agricultural goods for Brazil and Argentina, respectively. Such a difference in traded goods results in different responses to trade alterations in global headwinds that might spur from the new currency proposal. 

Furthermore, Brazil’s inflation levels have been thriving on a stable currency regulated by a “vigilant independent central bank,” remaining under double digits throughout the last decade, a staggering 61 percentage points below Argentina’s inflation levels. As highlighted in a recent article by the Atlantic, “Brazil’s monetary policy has credibility in international money markets; Argentina has had to impose capital controls to keep people from buying dollars.” The divergences in the nation’s economic performance economically through the past years can be attributed to significant divergences in policy approaches, which could be yet another issue factor when considering the establishment of the Sur. 

With the launch of the idea to the public eye, significant figures in the realm of international economics have spoken out about their opinions on the proposal. Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the IMF, mercilessly characterized the operation as “insane” and “a terrible idea.” For Brazil, doubtlessly, the insanity is clear. Why, then, is the country so headstrong about the merger? Surprisingly, a similar proposal was made in the late 1980s, following the neoliberal influence of chile, to replace the Brazilian Cruzeiro and Argentine Austral as a trade currency, but the idea fell short due to economic turmoil in 1988 sprouted from rampant inflation encountered by Brazil and an arduous debt crisis occurring in Argentina. 

The reintroduction of a joint currency for Brazil can be attributed to the country’s continued attempts to dominate the Latin American region through forms of soft and hard power. Economically, Brazil’s avant-garde approach to lifting Argentina from the ashes of financial turmoil, on paper, would allow it to reinforce its regional dominance as a liberal state providing support to one of its neighbors. Simultaneously, the Brazilian government sees the Sur as an opportunity to challenge the current economic system’s reliance on the US Dollar in trade. From the Brazilian perspective, the support of this idea provides the country with a “reputational boost from being seen to revive regional cooperation,” while also “[clawing]back trade with Argentina it has lost to China in recent years.”

 While on paper, the idea seems plausible and the potential accomplishments of the plan seem beneficial to Brazil as a growing regional and global power, the detriments coming from the implementation of the Sur would provide a drastic counter effect to such benefits, leaving the country in a worse state than in the outset of the plan. “Hitching Latin America’s biggest economy to that of its perennially volatile neighbor” would not work as smoothly as the neighboring states in question envision it. Not only would the Sur tether instability to Brazil’s economy, diverting investments and furthering trade relations, but it would also prove inefficient for the complications of the free flow of capital and labor across borders — a crucial aspect of currency shock balancing. The Sur simply lacks the mechanism that working currency unions bear: where European farmers transit seamlessly between jobs and member states, “South America’s poor infrastructure makes travel a hassle, and Argentina’s capital controls make getting paid across borders nearly impossible.”

Brazil should not be fooled by the enchanting tale of valiantly rescuing itself, Latin America and eventually the Global South, from dollar dominance marching across the international arena in a white stallion; certainly less so when said stallion, Argentina, has no legs. As a result, the growth potential that has been historically attributed to Brazil’s powerful economy remains — under the plan of the Sur — presently unattainable. 

The post Brazil’s Quest for the Top of the Leaderboard: An Auto-Destructive Strategy appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

INTERNATIONAL

Fears of Damaging Global Recession Recede, For Now

This autumn, fears of a recession spiked anxieties in large economies in the global community. For the United States, it was a salient issue in the midterm elections. Europeans braced for the winter season and its accompanying energy costs, and China continued to be stifled by their zero-covid policies. 

For now, some of these concerns seem to be abating. Prices have fallen in the United States since the election, winter in Europe has been relatively mild, and China has ended its ‘zero-COVID’ policy. Unfortunately, many economists believe a cooldown is still necessary. In order to properly slow down the economy, they believe central banks must keep interest rates higher, which will have wide and long-lasting effects across many economies. The global market proves to be unpredictable, though, so many will have to be attentive to changes in the coming months. 

NORTH AMERICA & SOUTH AMERICA 

Brazil

Brazil’s Insurrection Emulates the United States as Lula Steps Into the Presidency

After the close election of Bolsonaro and Lula de Silva, the concession to power seemed to be going fairly well, despite Bolsonaro sowing seeds of doubts for years before the election. 

However, just days after Lula de Silva took office, Bolsonaro supporters swarmed the Capitol, pushing their way inside Congress and the Supreme Court. With an uncanny resemblance to the United States, some media outlets are calling it another Jan 6.’

Consequences of this are sweeping in quickly. Brazil reports that over 300 people have been arrested and Brazil’s governor, Ibaneis Rocha, has been removed from his post.

The riots are only one of many challenges de Silva will be facing as president. Inflation is concerningly high, large amounts of spending to maintain the countries needed, poverty rates are increasing, and, as home to the Amazon rainforest, Brazil’s environmental mandates are demanding. Lula’s left-leaning policies aimed at resolving these issues, but they must be done in the increasingly tougher global market. 

United States 

The American Crisis in Elected Officials

The United States still seems to be feeling the consequences of its midterm elections. Earlier this month, Republican lawmakers struggled to elect a leader, and finally voted senator McCarthy after 15 votes over 5 days. In order for this to be possible, McCarthy had to make concessions to a more conservative swath of his party, bringing in a new era for the GOP. With the House already divided, the compromise needed to pass legislation becomes increasingly difficult. 

Republicans face another crisis of confidence through a Republican from New York, George Santos. He curated a facade of being a product of the American dream; upon further research however it seems very little of his supposed life story is actually true. While his lies include a criminal charge in Brazil and his educational credentials, the thing that shocked Republicans most was perhaps photos of him surfacing in drag. 

Finally, classified documents have been found at the homes at both Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s houses this month. While both are breaches in confidence, it should be noted that the Justice Department stated Biden had around 300 documents and self-reported the documents. Trump was visited by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago, and 33 boxes with 11,000 documents have been taken. 

Peru

Deadly Protests Continue, and Future of The Presidency Remains Unclear

After then-President Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress to prevent them from voting on his third impeachment, protests erupted in Peru. Current President Dina Boluarte struggles to manage them. Protesters have erected roadblocks, creating shortages in food, medicine, and other essentials. Dozens have been killed, some of which happened at the country’s airports, which the protesters tried to storm. 

While Boluarte’s approach to quelling protests has been criticized for their violence, she has made clear that she has no interest in being president. She offered a bill that moved a new general election up from 2026 to 2024 to assuage the protesters in December. This month, she tried to propose a bill that moved it up further to late 2023, but that was shot down by the Peruvian Congress. 

It is unclear exactly what the protestors want. Some want President Castillo back, despite him currently being in pretrial detention. Some may not be happy until new elections arrive in Peru. Either way, the resolution to Peru’s political turmoil remains unclear. 

Haiti

Haiti’s Breaking Point and the American Response

After years of national disasters and political turnover, Haiti is engulfed in gang violence that has taken the nation hostage. Close to 60 percent of the capital is controlled by gangs, who use horrifying levels of sexual violence to control the nation. Gangs kill and kidnap others at will. The country is currently leaderless, as most of the elected officials have left the nation. 

Additionally, as the country is steeped in famine-like conditions, cholera has made a comeback, killing a confirmed 283 people, with thousands more cases suspected.

With these conditions, there is an exodus in Haiti — but nowhere for them to go. The Biden Administration is weighing how to handle the migrants from the country, from expanding the current facility at Guantanamo Bay to holding them at a third nation temporarily. Additionally, many more migrants may come when there are no longer blockages to power and gas. As Haiti continues to burn, the Biden Administration needs to make decisions, and quickly, on how to aid the victims from a nation flooded with terrifying violence and death. 

ASIA & CENTRAL ASIA 

China

China Reopens and Feels COVID-19’s Effects

After China suddenly ended their longstanding ‘zero-Covid’ policy, COVID-19 has ravaged the country. Without adequate information on vaccines or support for medical institutions, many of China’s deaths due to Covid were wholly preventable. However, the CDC said there were no immediate spikes after the Lunar New Year, which was also this month. 

Through rescinding this policy, it is clear that China wants to return to high economic growth, rather than sensible covid policies. Additionally, its nationalism prevents it from accurately and clearly reporting data; China’s data is believed to be widely underreported. 

India 

India Bans the BBC documentary, India: The Modi Question 

BBC’s latest documentary has caused a stir, given its criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his role in the Gujarat riots of 2002. The current PM was serving as the Chief Minister of Gujarat at the time of the riots and critics have pointed out his lack of action during the gruesome events. The government cited that the documentary portrays anti-Modi rhetoric and interferes with domestic politics. They effectively silenced any potential criticism from citizens, particularly Muslim citizens. 

As a result of the documentary and India’s response, the country is under international scrutiny and has heightened Indian-U.K. relations. The ban on the documentary is more than just censorship — it is a leap towards the same kind of governance India once fought against under British colonialism. In recent years, Modi’s BJP party has carried out local and national efforts to proselytize its minorities and promote its Hindu nationalist ideology. 

Pakistan

Pakistan’s Week of Diplomacy Starts With Deadly Mosque Bombing

At least 59 people have been killed and 157 injured at a suicide bombing in a mosque in Peshawar. This bombing apparently targeted policemen who had been praying in the mosque. A similar bombing happened last month, targeting a police station. It is unsure at the time of writing whether these events are related.  

The timing of the bombing is of interest as well, especially on the foreign affairs front.This week, the president of the UAE was said to visit Islamabad, but that was canceled due to the weather. Additionally, the IMF was set to visit the country in order to unlock a bailout loan. For now, the country is on high alert. 

Nepal 

Plane Crash in Nepal Claims Lives of 72

On Sunday Jan. 15, Yeti Airlines flight 691 crashed into the tourist-heavy city in Nepal, Pokhara. Most of the passengers were medical students returning to Nepal as the new semester begins. There were 72 deaths, among them 68 were civilian passengers and four were crew members. Videos on social media showed the plane engulfed by flames and black plumes of smoke at the crash site, where emergency responders were seen trying to retrieve victims. The search for any potential supervisors was called off within days of the crash. 

THE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA 

Egypt

U.S. Secretary of State in Egypt Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East 

The top leadership of the American government flew to Egypt on Jan. 29 as violence between the Israeli forces and its Palestinian counterpart escalated. Secretary Anthony Blinken is expected to make a trip, following his visit to Cairo, to Israel and the West Bank. 

On Jan. 26, nine people were killed in an Israeli army raid on the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank in one of the deadliest such operations in years. Israel said it was targeting Islamic Jihad militants and later hit the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip in response to rocket fire. Blinken will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas and call “broadly for steps to be taken to de-escalate tensions,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters as he condemned the “horrific” synagogue attack. 

The Middle East has always been a key region of interest for the United States and Israel seems to be emerging as its strongest ally in order to have a strong hold. 

Iran

Iranians Anger Seethes as Protests Recede

Four months later, Iranians are still leading their unprecedented levels of protest, as a new injustice by the state is publicized. Protestors have started to be hanged, bringing new levels of grief to the country. Over 20,000 people have been locked up, and many have been shot and hurt by rubber bullets or metal pellets. There have been reports of those sustaining these injuries being arrested in the hospital after their surgeries. Protests surged again earlier this month after the commemoration of a passenger jet shot down in 2020. 

However, Iranians seem to be pulled back towards their normal life. Inflation is so high in the country, some have turned to a barter system. University campuses, which were once a site for some of the most heaviest protests, have quieted and are being heavily policed. 

Getting a clear picture on Iran has become exceedingly difficult, as foreign journalists are not welcome, and many journalists already in Iran have been jailed. As the media outside of Iran pieces together the fragments that they can get from small videos and witness testimonies, one thing remains clear: Iranians’ anger has not and will not be quieted so long as they are under the regime. 

Somalia

ISIS Leader Killed in a U.S.-led Raid 

Bilal-al-Sudani, a leader of the Islamic State, was killed along with 10 of his operatives in Northern Somalia. The strike was ordered by U.S. President Joe Biden on Jan. 25. The U.S. operation targeted al-Sudani, an important Islamic State financial facilitator, and took place in the Cal Miskaad mountains, in a remote cave complex in the Bari region of Somalia’s Puntland state. 

Kenya 

Venezuelan Diplomat Convicted over Murder of Ambassador 

A Venezuelan diplomat was found guilty in a Kenyan court for the murder of the acting Venezuelan ambassador 10 years ago. Dwight Sagaray, who was the first secretary at the embassy, was found guilty of the Jul. 2012 killing of Olga Fonseca, Judge Roselyn Korir said in her ruling on Wednesday. The court also convicted three Kenyan nationals who had been charged alongside Sagaray, saying they were involved in a common plan to carry out the murder. Fonseca, 57, was found strangled in her bedroom less than two weeks into her posting to Nairobi, which followed the abrupt departure of the previous ambassador after he was accused by his domestic staff of sexual harassment

Malawi

Worst Cholera Outbreak, 750 Dead and Counting 

The country has reported its worst ever cholera outbreak over the past two decades. The country has had a death toll of 750 with numerous people taking the disease everyday. The World Health Organization chief described the southeast African country as among the hardest-hit amid ongoing global epidemics that are “more widespread and deadly than normal”.

Malawi’s Health Minister Khumbize Kandodo Chiponda on Jan. 12 ordered the closure of many businesses that lack safe water, toilets and hygienic refuse disposal facilities, and announced restrictions on the sale of pre-cooked food. According to the health minister, the country has recorded 22,759 cases since the onset of the outbreak in March last year

Israel

Netanyahu’s Right Wing Shift Weakens Supreme Court

Sworn in for his sixth term in office, Netanyahu was named prime minister in late December. However, this government coalition may look a little different than his previous terms, as they include more far right parties. While Netanyahu has promised not to only consider their agenda, the centrist parties of the countries are notably absent; they refused to serve under a prime minister that is convicted of fraud and corruption. This is in reference to an ongoing trial, in which Netanyahu is accused of granting certain Israeli media outlets favors in exchange for a more generous portrayal of himself. 

This month, Netanyahu’s new right wing shift manifested itself in new legislation against the Supreme Court. Netanyahu’s justice minister, Yariv Levin, wants to have an ‘override’ clause which would allow the Israeli parliament to override a Court decision to pass potentially unconstitutional laws. Additionally, it would make the court unable to strike down government decisions on the ground of ‘reasonableness.’ These, among other reforms, would destroy the Supreme Court’s independence from the other branches of government. 

In response to this, thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets in protest for the past couple weeks. “No to dictatorship,” they chant, as some experts warn that the passage of these ‘reforms’ would signal an end to democracy. 

Tunisia

Low Turnout in Tunisian Elections Not Promising for Future of Democracy

Tunisia will undergo elections this month, but startling low turnout is expected with the first round of voting in December only seeing 11.2% of registered voters go to the polls. This reflects the illegitimacy that citizens see in the system; their lack of enthusiasm is not without its merits. Since President Kais Saied was elected president in 2019, he has dissolved parliament and changed the constitution, with the new legislature having little to no power to hold the presidency accountable. 

Tunisians don’t see politics as a viable way to reach their goals. As they are experiencing budget deficits, they are often not able to pay for adequate amounts of food, medicine, oil, and other essentials. While the country is going through sluggish negotiations with  the IMF for a 2 billion dollar bailout, around 32,000 citizens have chosen to leave the country entirely. 

PACIFIC 

New Zealand 

Prime Minister Jacinda Arden Set to Resign

On Jan. 19, the world’s youngest leader to ever be elected and the prime minister of New Zealand announced that she would be stepping down as the leader of the country no later than Feb. 7.

“I’m leaving, because with such a privileged role comes responsibility – the responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead and also when you are not. I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It’s that simple,” she said.

Arden’s time in office was marked by numerous hardships, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Mar. 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings and the Dec. 2019 White Island volcano eruption. She steered her country through the pandemic and emerged as one of the world’s most recognizable heads of government.

Kiribati

Kiribati Rejoins Pacific Forum 

The island nation of Kiribati rejoins the Pacific Forum, signaling the end of a rift that seemed to be fracturing in the region. Kiribati withdrew from the forum mid-2022, citing lack of input in the bureaucratic arm of the organization. Some thought that the timing of the exit indicated taking the Chinese side in the U.S.-China rivalry, but after a visit from the Prime Minister of Fiji armed with a formal apology, it seems the island nation is back in the regional forum. 

EUROPE

France 

Macron Aims to Raise Retirement Age 62 to 64

French President Emmanuel Macron, on Jan 10, announced that the government plans to raise the retirement age of its citizens from 62 to 64 as is “no longer negotiable”. A union-led online petition against the retirement plan saw a surge in new signatures after Borne’s comments.

Mr. Macron’s last attempt to change the pension system in 2019 prompted massive street protests and one of the longest transportation strikes in France’s history, until the Covid-19 pandemic hit and the government shelved the plan. The  plan is a more straightforward attempt to balance the system’s budget by making the French work longer, a move that is still likely to meet strong popular resistance.

The bill goes to a parliamentary commission on Monday, and to a full debate in the National Assembly on Feb. 6. Opponents have submitted 7,000 proposed amendments that will further complicate the debate.

Ukraine 

German and U.S. Tanks are Due to Arrive in Ukraine 

German and American tanks are headed to Ukraine to assist in the country’s ongoing resistance to the Russian invasion. There is potential for this action to heighten tensions between the united West (the United States and Europe) and Putin. Germany’s agreement to send weapons and now these tanks come almost after a year of denying military support to Ukraine. The leaders of the United States and Germany each announced Wednesday they will send contingents of tanks to Ukraine, reversing their longstanding trepidation at providing Kyiv with offensive armored vehicles and unleashing powerful new tools in Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory seized by Russia.

Russia

Russia’s Relationships After Ukraine

After the ongoing, unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the international community shunned Russia, looking at ways to punish Russia, especially economically, for their crimes. This month, the United States targeted the Wagner Group, labeling them a ‘transnational criminal organization.’ The Treasury Department sanctioned individuals and entities with ties to the Wagner Group, hoping to interfere with Russia’s ability to buy war materials. 

Even with a myriad of sanctions and restrictions, Russia’s trade seems to have been resilient, appearing at pre-war levels. Some believe that many neighboring countries have continued to trade with Russia, including China and Turkey. Additionally, many firms in the European Union may have kept economic ties in Russia. 

On the domestic side, an unusual move of resistance was seen when over 200 doctors signed a petition to Putin to stop the abuse of Aleksei Navalny, Putin’s most known political opponent. This public criticism is rare and bold, as many professionals have been fired or faced criminal charges for speaking out against Russian activities. Navalny’s health was first jeopardized in late 2020 after being poisoned by a military-grade nerve agent that American intelligence sources attribute to Russian agents. 

Turkey

Turkey Threatens Potential NATO Membership for Sweden 

Ankara has refused to ratify the two countries’ NATO membership bids, primarily because of Sweden’s refusal to extradite dozens of suspects that Ankara links to outlawed Kurdish fighters and a failed 2016 coup attempt. Sweden has a bigger Kurdish diaspora than Finland and a more serious dispute with Ankara. 

“We may deliver Finland a different message [on their NATO application]and Sweden would be shocked when they see our message. But Finland should not make the same mistake Sweden did,” Erdogan said in a televised speech aired on Sunday. Sweden and Finland applied last year to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, dropping their long standing military nonalignment.

The post The World in a Glimpse – January 2023 appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

NORTH AMERICA & SOUTH AMERICA 

Brazil

After Finally Challenging the Election, Jair Bolsonaro Gets Shot Down 

After warning that he would not accept the results prior to the election, Jair Bolsonaro finally posed his challenge, citing a software issue in the voting machines. This comes three weeks after the election was called in favor of Lula de Silva. Bolsonaro’s initial silence was taken as a relief to those supporting Brazilian democracy, especially since he won by such a small margin: 1.8%. 

Now that he has voiced his complaint, the Supreme Court justice who runs Brazil’s elections agency, Alexadre de Moraes, denied the Bolsonaro campaign’s arguments saying that they were false and anti-democratic. Many think that his late election denials are a way to rally up for a bid in 2026, perhaps emulating former American president Donald Trump. Bolsonaro is a public fan of Trump, who just announced his re-election this month. 

United States

U.S. Midterms are Unexpectedly Underwhelming for Republicans

Before the midterms, a much anticipated “red wave” was set to sweep the nation, giving Republicans control of the House and Senate by overtaking the Democrats’ narrow margins. However, Democrats fought off the concerns of inflation before the midterms, a generally Republican-favoring issue, by campaigning on concerns of Roe and threats to democracy. This led them to lose fewer House seats than many polls predict, keep the Senate with an anticipated Georgia run-off, and win some contested governor elections, like Arizona’s. 

However, Republicans did count a few wins this month. Greg Abbott successfully fought off another challenge from Beto O’Rourke. DeSantis won Florida’s gubernatorial election by nearly 20 points. This is good news for those who potentially want DeSantis to face off against Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. 

Mexico

AMLO Joins Protesters Against Potential Electoral Changes

Just weeks after protests against proposed changes to Mexico’s electoral rules, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (or AMLO) marched with crowds through the capital to show his support for these programs. These electoral changes would give more control to the president, and Obrador doesn’t have enough support to pass it through Congress. However, the president drew support from all across the country, many traveling to join him in his electoral reform, all of which the President maintains is genuine. Many opponents of Obrador accuse him of using his presidential power to unfairly push his agenda and win popular support, like by using executive orders or misusing funds for welfare programs that bolster his popularity, so they view these reforms more skeptically. 

ASIA & CENTRAL ASIA 

Indonesia

Death Toll Continues to Rise from Indonesian Earthquake

A 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia’s most populous and agricultural province this month. Many are forced to leave their village homes, and repairs may take a while as some villages are currently inaccessible. Death tolls continue to rise as rescue efforts continue, but officials put current estimates at around 310 people. Around a third of the deaths are children, as they were stuck in schools or other buildings. The damage by the earthquake was heightened by landslides caused by deforestation, mining, and urban development. 

China’s Xi Jinping meets America’s Biden for the first time in the G-20 Summit in Bali

President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping committed to addressing tensions between the two countries Monday morning in Bali ahead of the G-20 Summit. The three-hour meeting addressed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in Taiwan and the United States’ sanctions on China. The leaders met face-to-face for the first time at a crucial point in world politics, after both men strengthened their political positions at home, according to analysts. 

China has been under pressure from the United States since Trump imposed economic sanctions on the country in 2018 which limited the country’s growing economy. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightened international tensions last year.Both leaders expressed an “openness to restoring channels of communication” and repairing the relationship that has been compared to a second Cold War. Biden said that the conversation between the two leaders was “very blunt.” According to Jinping’s spokesperson, the Chinese leader viewed the meeting as “in-depth, candid and constructive.”

Kyrgyzstan 

Prominent Journalist Bolot Temirov Deported to Russia Following Fake Charges 

Bolot Temriv, a prominent and well respected journalist has been under persecution by the Kyrgyz government for a long time. He came under fire by the repressive government for uncovering corruption at its highest level. 

In January 2021, Temirov via his Youtube channel released a detailed report on the company of Taimuras Tashiev, the son of Kamchybek Tashiev, head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security and a close advisor to Japorov. In the report, Temirov detailed the instances of  corruption and nepotism amongst the high ranks of the government, evidencing his claim that many government deals were freely being awarded to Taimuru. 

Temriv was allegedly charged with illegal possession of drugs and illegal crossing of the state border, forgery of documents related to use of a fake military ID and fake temporary ID. The state prosecutors sought a five year sentence until September 2022 when the Sverdlovsk District Court of Bishkek acquitted the human rights defender and journalist.  

The state prosecutor filed an appeal on the acquittal of Temirov and on Nov. 23, 2022 the  Bishkek City Court unprecedentedly ruled to deport the human rights defender to Russia. 

North Korea 

North Korea Tests Nuclear Weapons, Leader Makes an Appearance With His Daughter 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversees the testing of the country’s new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Nov. 18. 

Kim made an appearance with his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, in her debut to the world. This has sparked debates of the North Korean succession. While the country still functions in a patriarchy, experts believe that his daughter’s launch on the political world stage is a sign of Kim promoting his daughter up the ranks. 

Ju Ae is believed to be the leader’s second child aged about nine or ten years old. The presence of his daughter has not restricted world leaders from pouring in condemnation for the leader and his isolated regime. Many countries including Japan and the United States have criticized North Korea for its testing and development of nuclear weapons. 

The weapons have been reported to be within fireable range of the continental United States. Kim has solemnly declared that if his enemies continue to pose threats against North Korea, his government will react with nukes. He has emphasized the importance of nuclear weapons to his reign for the country’s safety.

China

China’s Zero-Covid Policy Sparks Rare Protest

China’s authoritarian grasp makes protests a relatively rare occurrence in China. However, China’s unnecessarily draconian zero-covid policy changed this trend. A power strip fire that could have been quickly put out by firefighters took too slow and ended up killing ten; many blamed the lockdown for hindering rescue efforts. 

Now, many are taking to the streets, staging vigils, holding up blank pieces of paper in silent protest, and even calling for the step-down of Xi Jingping, just as he secured another term of power in the country. It remains to be seen how long China can disrupt the lives of millions before they must succumb to the demands of their citizens, from looser Covid policies to a ballot box. 

India

India’s Unique Position In Diplomacy

India is in a rare position for diplomatic relations, as it has good ties with the West, China, and Russia. During the Russia-Ukraine War, India has quietly stepped into loud disputes. It helped to free up millions of pounds of much-needed Ukrainian grain this summer. It asked Russia to back off from the Ukrainian power plant Zaporizhzhya this fall. India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has high ambitions when it comes to its diplomatic power. 

The United States seemed to recognize this potential when Janet Yellen, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, made a visit to India’s capital in order to form a friendship that can capitalize on India’s relations. This could be helpful for the United States as the cost of products are rising and the security of some supply chains are in jeopardy. In the future, India may see deepening ties with the United States, like how Microsoft is expanding operations in the country and a larger role in diplomacy. 

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

 Qatar

The FIFA World Cup Off to a Start in Qatar and Not Without Controversy

Nov. 20 saw the FIFA World Cup 2022 kick start with its opening ceremony. Qatar opened its gates to large crowds and even large criticisms and evaluations of its human rights record. 

The country has banned any and all LGBTQ paraphernalia in teh stadiums out of respect for the country’s religious practice. Many countries have criticized Qatar for restricting freedom of expression. While it is saddening to see rights of LGBTQ members and allies restricted it also questions the double standards of the world and the FIFA committee. 

Awarding a Muslim-majority country to host FIFA, what did the world expect? The soccer governing body, FIFA, knew this in 2010, when it awarded Qatar the football tournament. FIFA’s own governing statutes, in force at the time, ban LGBT discrimination of the kind Qatar enshrines in its national laws, and FIFA’s due diligence to enforce its own policies around the world has been ineffective. 

Additionally, when Qatar was awarded the football tournament it employed migrant workers to create a facility that could house large crowds. Since the country was awarded the tournament almost 6500 migrant workers have died over a span of 10 years. 

In the past 10 years, Qatar has embarked on an unprecedented building programme. In addition to seven new stadiums, dozens of major projects were completed including a new airport, roads, public transport systems, hotels and a new city. In this process much cheap labor has been employed from countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. 

Egypt 

Egypt Hosted COP27 In Another Effort to Advance Climate Talks 

The United Nations Climate Change conference was hosted by Egypt in the green city of Sharm El Sheikh. 

The conference ended with an agreement to create a fund to compensate less wealthy countries already suffering destruction stemming from rising average temperatures.

 The meeting also secured more commitments to cut methane pollution and addressed a renewed, desperate call to keep the planet from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius , one of the targets of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The deal for a loss and damage fund marked a diplomatic coup for small islands and other vulnerable nations in winning over the 27-nation European Union and the United States, which had long resisted the idea for fear that such a fund could open them to legal liability for historic emissions.

Israel 

Benjamin Netanyahu Wins Re-election as Prime Minister of Israel, Lapid Concedes. 

The former prime minister who made way for Yair Lapid earlier in the year has won the country’s 5th election in the last 4 years following Lapid’s concession in the recent November 1 elections. 

The popular vote was evenly split with about 49% of the vote going to Mr. Netanyahu and 49% going to his opponents.

He comes into office with an experience of over 15 years as prime minister. He has always been stringent on making concessions to the Palestinians to advance a peace process and has been reluctant to change the status quo in the West Bank in favor of his allies in the settlement movement. Under him ties between Turkey had worsened and now it will be interesting to see him continue to restore the ties, an attempt his predecessor, Lapid, did. 

Saudi Arabia 

The United States says Saudi Crown Prince Immune from Khashoggi Case Brought to the Justice Department 

Over four years ago in October, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated by agents of the Saudi government  in Istanbul by direct order of the crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).The brutal attack on freedom of speech and the press by MBS vis-à-vis the Saudi government has not been held accountable until recently.

Washington Post columnist, Hatice Cengiz filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Justice against the crown prince. However, the Justice Department announced in mid-November that the prince has complete immunity in the case brought by Cengiz. A U.S. intelligence report that Biden declassified after coming into office said Khashoggi’s killing could not have happened without MBS’ knowledge.

The DOJ argues that MBS is immune from prosecution due to the office in Saudi Arabia that he holds. The department in the filing said, “Mohammed bin Salman, the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is the sitting head of government and, accordingly, is immune from this suit.”

Under Saudi law, the only authority which is immune from any prosecution is that of the King’s. The argument made against immunity is that the King holds all powers legislative, executive and judiciary in the absolute monarchy, and has full authority even over the Prime minister, unlike the United Kingdom.  Many believe that the Prince’s appointment as prime minister is that of exception in a pure attempt to evade accountability. He was made prime minister just days before the lawsuit was filed. 

Although it is unsure as to why the United States acknowledged the immunity of the prime minister instead of just staying silent. Could it be to regulate oil prices, considering Saudi Arabia controls one of the largest shares of the world oil or just a diplomatic decision? 

Iran 

Iran’s Merciless Responses To Ongoing Protests

Ever since protests erupted in Iran two months ago after the death of Mahsa Amini, Iranian officials have seen an unprecedented level of fury by its citizens. Many of those protesting are younger citizens, mostly in their teens. Growing up in a regime of repression, the youth of Iran do not hide their defiance. They have set fire to the childhood home of Khomenei. They are clashing with officials on the streets, schools, and campuses and say they will not rest until Mr. Khamenei steps down. 

Iran is no stranger to quelling protests, though. Their first crackdown comes this month with large arrests, the UN estimating that it totals to around 14,000. Officials have also been raiding high schools around Iran, barging in to interrogate and beat students. Security forces have been leaving their citizens riddled with rubber bullets and metal pellets, leaving some blinded in their eyes. Iranian officials are sentencing children to adult prisons and even death, enraging citizens even further of their brutal treatment of their most innocent of citizens. 

EUROPE

Ukraine 

Russian Troops withdraw from Kherson, Victory for Ukraine, Putin Faces Defeat 

On Friday, Nov. 11, Russian troops completed their withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson – a hastened retreat of thousands of Russian troops across the Dnipro river in the south of Ukraine.

Vlodymer Zelensky, the president of Ukraine celebrated the victory over Russia by raising the Ukrainian flag citywide and singing national anthems in joy of the victory. A spokesperson from the Kremlin earlier had said that the Ukrainian city of Kherson was part of the Russian Federation making the victory even more symbolic for Ukraine.

Kherson’s loss for Russia now threatens its influence over the region. Ukrainian troops have gone and taken back control of the city, it lies geographically very close to Crimea – A strategic and critical region for Putin.  

Russia

Griner’s Release Still Undecided

Brittney Griner, an American basketball star sentenced to jail for 9 years after entering Russia with vape cartridges, was rumored by a Russian diplomat to be closer to release through a prison exchange. However, U.S. officials dismiss this idea, saying that the Kremlin is not serious about prison exchange. 

The negotiation is still ongoing and Griner is currently in a penal colony where harsh treatment is common. This is just one of many conflicting disputes between Moscow and Washington: a Russian source said that they are working through a special channel to resolve the Griner issue, while the State Department declined this, saying Russia is not negotiating in good faith. 

United Kingdom

Rishi Sunak’s Debut

Rishi Sunak starts out his time as Prime Minister with a tough sell to Britons: a 55 million pound budget plan that includes tax raises and spending cuts to fill a gap in the budget. This comes from a Prime Minister that has more wealth than the current monarch. However, the budget’s initial debut did not have the disastrous financial consequences when former Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her plan. Additionally, many of the taxes’ onset would happen after the next general election. Finally, additional funding would go to healthcare and education. Despite all these ideals, Britons will nevertheless need to be sold on the perks of higher taxes and lower government spending.

Poland

NATO Maintains Poland Strike Was Not a Russian Missile

After a missile struck Polish farmland and killed two people, Polish officials blamed Russia for the attack. However, as Poland borders Russia, Polish president Andrzej Duda did not blame Russia and said it was not an intentional attack. However, NATO asked for further information on this, and President Biden claimed that it was unlikely that Russia fired the missile, but did not give an alternative for the assailant; the Kremlin praised this response. Had Russia targeted Poland, they would have risked drawing NATO into the war.

The post The World in A Glimpse – November 2022 Edition appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

As Brazil currently finds itself in a tight economic situation, recovering from its worst-ever recession with limited economic growth, high inflation, and lots of debt, finances and economy will likely play a major factor in Sunday’s election. However, the most globally concerning issue is that of the Amazon rainforest and its fate in the hands of either candidate.

The Amazon Rainforest should ideally function as a major global carbon sink. A carbon sink is anything that absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases, and the rainforest used to be one of the most significant and important carbon sinks in the world. However, it has now converted to a carbon source, which releases more carbon into the atmosphere than it absorbs. This is due to both natural and manmade factors. In terms of the former, the eastern part of the Amazon rainforest over the last 40 years has seen a 25% reduction of rain and an increase of at least 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit during dry seasons. This causes more forest fires and even causes the trees to be able to contain less carbon than before. As these shifts are attributed to climate change, a nasty cycle is produced where such effects cause deforestation and carbon release, which contribute further to climate change. These factors, combined with human-started forest fires and clearance of trees have shifted this eastern part of the forest into a carbon source. The western part of the Amazon is largely carbon neutral, as it too suffers from fires and deforestation but not to the same degree as the eastern region. This is extremely worrisome for the Amazon and for the planet, as the conversion of carbon sinks into carbon sources might be a key shift in the progression of climate change, and not for the better. 

A win for Bolsonaro in this election could make the fate of the Amazon go from bad to worse. Already during his presidency, Bolsonaro has cut environmental regulations, taken power away from those in charge of protecting the rainforest, put military officials who want to develop the forest at the heads of environmental institutions, and incentivized the invasion of native lands. Deforestation under him reached a 15-year high, with a loss of over two billion trees over the last four years. That is the equivalent of about 13,000 miles of forest lost, an area larger than the state of Maryland. From 2021 to 2022, fires in the Amazon rose by 147%, with over 41,000 detected, 31,500 during this year’s dry season alone. Even for a dry season this is an unusually high number, and is possibly due to ranchers using fire to clear their land under the cover of the dry season. If discovered, the punishment the farmers face is a fine, one they can get away with not paying. The reason for such destruction of the forest under Bolsonaro is that he actively encourages more farming, ranching, and mining in the Amazon. He has decreased government presence in the forest, a message to illegal farmers, ranchers, and miners that a blind eye will be turned to their clearance of the forest. He is also attempting to pass bills that would grant ownership of native lands to land invaders to mine and bills that would make it easier to obtain licenses to conduct large-scale farming or mining in the Amazon. He sees the Amazon as an opportunity for jobs and economic growth. As a result, many people in Amazonas state support him: many of them are below the poverty line and do need jobs; Bolsonaro makes this a priority. In September 2022, environmental criminals cleared 1,455 square kilometers of the forest in an attempt to destroy as much as possible before the potential change of power. Even before, in August, deforestation rose by 81%. People are acting in a last ditch effort to clear as much as they can just in case Bolsonaro isn’t re-elected. Ecologists say that if this level of destruction isn’t stopped soon, the damage could become irreparable and the rainforest will no longer be able to retain enough moisture to remain a rainforest; the Amazon would become a savannah. 

Lula da Silva, on the other hand, vows to go in another direction.  He says he will implement measures to protect the Amazon, appoint experts to environmental institutions and weed out illegal gold mining. He’s also proposed a National Climate Change Authority to ensure Brazil’s procedures are up to the Paris Agreement standards. On top of this, Lula da Silva has pledged to rebuild Ibama, the environmental protection agency Bolsonaro weakened and sidelined under his administration. 

There is precedent for Lula da Silva’s claims: when he and his party were last in power from 2003 to 2016, deforestation fell by 72%. They accomplished this by increasing forest monitoring and addressing root problems of deforestation by implementing sustainable production and formal land ownership. However, Lula da Silva’s challenge this time around would be a little more difficult, with the precedent that Bolsonaro has set in the region. He would need to rid the Amazon of illegal miners, loggers, and ranchers, and better regulate food and gold markets. 

This election is a key turning point for the Amazon rainforest because of the drastically different approaches the two candidates would take with the forest for the next four years. Under a Bolsonaro regime, destruction would likely continue and could even become more severe if he passes his desired bills making it easier to exploit the forest. The damage incurred could be irreversible. On the other hand, if Lula da Silva were elected, he could take the country’s approach to the Amazon and the environment in a new direction and hopefully implement change before it’s too late. 

The post How Brazil’s Election Will Affect the Global Climate appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

Brazil’s first-round results put Lula ahead with 48.3% of the votes versus 43.2% for Bolsonaro, setting up a highly polarized sprint to the finish line and a test for Brazil’s democracy. With a recent poll indicating an ever-tightening race and with Lula ahead by a slim margin of 52% to 48%, many fear that Bolsonaro will refuse to accept the results if he loses and that he could attempt a January 6-style insurrection. Amid a nationwide climate of tension and division, the fate of Brazil’s 30-year-old democracy now hangs in the balance. 

The Bolsonaro administration has been rife with controversy. Since his inauguration in January 2019, Bolsonaro has been a close emulator of former U.S. President Donald Trump through his divisive rhetoric and staunchly conservative politics. Over the last four years, Bolsonaro has questioned the role and power of Brazil’s Supreme Court, repeatedly challenged the integrity of the electoral system, downplayed COVID-19 as “a little flu” and approved reckless environmental policies that have advanced the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. In terms of foreign policy, Bolsonaro has embraced anti-globalism, distanced himself from the United Nations, threatened to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Agreement and feuded with U.S. President Joe Biden. While his platform appeals to big business interests and Brazil’s social conservatives, large swaths of the population see his views as dangerous to democracy and incompatible with modern Brazilian society. 

Lula is largely running on the nostalgia of the prosperous times during his previous administration and the failure of many of Bolsonaro’s policies, like his botched COVID-19 response. During his two terms, Lula helped lift millions out of poverty, making him one of Brazil’s most popular leaders. In contrast to Bolsonaro, Lula’s foreign policy would return to a more traditional role of leadership in regional affairs and closer relationships with the United States and the European Union. Yet, the Workers Party (PT) candidate is not without his own set of controversies. In September 2016, he was charged and convicted of corruption originating from a money laundering investigation known as “Operation Car Wash” and served a jail sentence while also being banned from running for reelection in 2018. But in March 2021, Brazil’s Supreme Court overturned the conviction, saying Lula’s trial had been compromised by a biased judge with political motivations, clearing him to run for president. 

Thus, many Brazilians see this election as a tough choice, as they aren’t satisfied with either candidate.

From the very beginning of his presidency, Bolsonaro has stretched the limits of presidential powers and criticized the security of Brazil’s electoral system, tugging at the seams of Brazilian democracy. Yet, investigations by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and by independent organizations have disproven his electoral fraud claims, showing that the country’s electronic voting system, adopted in the 1990s, is highly accurate and secure. In fact, many believe that the system should be considered a model for elections internationally. 

Despite these assurances, it is undeniable that Bolsonaro’s rhetoric has already made a negative impact on Brazilian democracy. The country’s faith in its democratic system has taken a beating in recent years, with 44% of the population believing that Brazil is becoming less democratic, according to a recent study conducted by YouGov. “The last election was peaceful. Now we have a president who does not make it very clear whether he will obey the results of the polls and who has a close relationship with the military,” said Brazilian scholar Carlos Gustavo Poggio, a specialist in Brazil-U.S. relations and professor at Berea College in Kentucky.

In addition to his damaging claims about the condition of Brazil’s democracy, Bolsonaro’s strong connection with the Brazilian armed forces has raised concerns about a possible military intervention in the electoral process. For many in the older generation, it has reignited the memory of the 1964 military coup. In recent months, the military has also raised questions about the integrity of electronic voting and has requested to conduct an independent inspection of the ballot box codes in meetings with TSE technicians. The demands match those of President Bolsonaro, raising serious questions about possible collusion between the President and the military and how that could affect the aftermath of the runoff election results.

The United States, as a key strategic and trade partner of Brazil and the major power in the Western Hemisphere, has a significant role to play in ensuring the perpetuation of Brazilian democracy, and interest in the election has been notably high from multiple levels of the American government. The State Department has repeatedly made clear that the U.S. will back the results of the election. In an interview with BBC Brasil, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland said, “what needs to happen in Brazil are free and fair elections, using the institutional structures that have served you [Brazilians] well in the past.” The Senate also unanimously approved a resolution sponsored by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) defending Brazilian democracy. The resolution urges the U.S. government to “immediately recognize” the results of the election. More notably, it also instructed the U.S. to “review and reconsider the relationship” with Brazil in the event of a power grab through undemocratic means. 

On Oct. 30, Brazilian democracy will face a challenge like never before in its over 30-year history. Regardless of who wins, the next government’s priority should be fostering Brazil’s economic growth and political stability. Brazilian institutions must hold firm to ensure the continuation of free and fair elections in the country. In the event of a Lula victory, local and international actors must step in to guarantee that Bolsonaro cannot attempt to overthrow the election results and enact a Brazilian insurrection.

The post Lula vs. Bolsonaro: What’s At Stake in Brazil’s Presidential Election Runoff? appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

Excluding oceans, the Amazon is the world’s most important carbon sink and a critical tool in combating climate change, but it continues to be exploited and deforested at irreversible rates. All too often, throughout the region, and around the world, environmental activists are threatened and harmed by those who wish to silence their quest for justice. In Brazil “[b]etween 2002 and 2013, at least 448 environmentalists were killed,” and in just 2020 alone, amidst a global pandemic, over 200 environmental activists were murdered, and over 50% of these murders took place in Latin America.

As a result of this violent history, Latin America has gained the reputation as “[t]he deadliest place [on Earth]for environmental activists.” Historically, the root of this brutality can be attributed to a colonial and neo-colonial legacy of extractivism and unequal distribution of power, permitting multinational corporations and organized crime groups to face little to no repercussions for their actions.

Under the current Bolsonaro regime, this violent trend has continued, with Brazil oscillating between the first and fourth deadliest country for environmental activists. Bolsonaro also slashed the budget for the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), the country’s environmental policy agency. Furthermore, Brazil concurrently faces its highest number of land conflicts since 1985, suggesting that within recent history, a near-unprecedented infringement on Indigenous land and environmental rights is taking place. As sovereign Indigenous land is being destroyed, the criminals go without trial for their unlawful actions.

Just several weeks ago, while conducting research, British journalist Dom Phillips and Indigenous peoples expert Brun Pereira went missing in the Javari Valley, a region where concerns were raised about organized crime groups in the area as early as 2021 by local Indigenous tribes, yet their voices fell on deaf ears. 

Following the initial disappearance, police took little to no action and only conducted a search after facing international pressure. After a “thorough” ten-day investigation, police found the bodies of the two researchers, and they swiftly concluded that the journalists were murdered by three local fishermen who had no connection to organized crime. However, given the outspoken anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric by the team of journalists in the past and the history of organized crime in the area, many have grown skeptical of the investigation’s findings.

This skepticism, in part, also arises from the infrequent nature in which the murderers of environmental activists are prosecuted, and even rarer that “the masterminds behind the plots… stand trial.” 

Therefore, how can Brazilians, and the world, believe there is not more to the story in the case of Phillips and Pereria?

After the (lack of) initial response by the Brazilian government, one Brazilian NGO noted, “Through his omission in the search efforts or the way he has encouraged these criminals, the Bolsonaro government’s fingerprints are all over this tragedy.” Unfortunately, as time passes, the public’s attention to the situation gradually wanes, and soon the valid skepticism fades to rumors of the past.

Although the attention fades, the danger faced by activists does not. Throughout Latin America, environmental protectors continue to risk their lives, and without drastic governmental and societal reform, the deadly situation for activists is unlikely to change.

To enact change, Brazilians will not only need to show up at the polls come October but they must also hold their elected officials accountable with sustained pressure, and the pressure cannot only come domestically. Only with the combined force of constituents and international powers, NGOs and media can true change be enacted to provide justice for environmental activists.

Brazil and the rest of Latin America have some of the most crucial habitats for the planet’s survival, but these resources and their protectors are rapidly disappearing. The international community must be more aware and vocal about the treatment of environmentalists to help ensure their safety and the survival of our planet because the Earth is dying and so are the people trying to protect it. 

The post Brazil: Where Environmental Activists Make the Ultimate Sacrifice appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

Besides its emissions, Brazil’s climate action (or lack thereof) is of international importance due to the unique natural resource harbored within its borders. The Amazon rainforest, the largest of its kind in the world, stretches for 2.6 million square miles across 8 countries in South America. The majority of the Amazon, however, is in Brazil, granting the country jurisdiction over much of the 100 billion metric tons of carbon  stored in the forest. During deforestation, these carbon stores escape into the atmosphere, exacerbating the greenhouse effect causing climate change and eliminating the oxygenation benefits provided by the rainforest.

The situation of the forest gives Brazil a great responsibility over its preservation.  Brazil’s policies toward the Amazon — which are subject to volatility during changes in leadership and attitudes regarding conservation and protection — have implications beyond climate change: Indigenous rights and land, biodiversity conservation, medicinal innovation and agricultural sectors. With so much at stake, Brazil’s inconsistent and inflammatory environmental policies in the Amazon inflict dire repercussions regionally and globally. 

Bolsonaro and Business in the Amazon

President Bolsonaro took office in 2018 with clear intentions of opening up the Amazon to development. He repeatedly asserted Brazil’s ownership of the Amazon and denied any claims to common regional heritage over the Amazonian ecosystem. In 2019, Bolsonaro criticized European countries for condemning his attitude toward the Amazon and said, “the Amazon is Brazil’s, not yours”. 

With this mindset, Bolsonaro opened the Amazon to business and  exploited natural  resources, including in Indigenous land. This attitude proved to be extremely destructive, as deforestation hit a high point last year. 

Deforestation of the Amazon has been extremely profitable for private corporations, especially the agricultural and mining sectors that have capitalized on dealings with Brazilian politicians. The drive for deforestation has been pushed by large financial, agricultural and mining corporations such as BlackRock investment, JBS and Cargill agriculture. The lobbying and destruction has been abetted by Brazilian politicians like Wilson Lima, the conservative governor of one of the regions that makes up a lot of Brazil’s Amazon. The mutually beneficial relationship established between corporations and politicians further reduces Bolsonaro’s incentive to revise his destructive development policies without sufficient international pressure.

Bolsonaro is only willing to undertake conservation efforts that threaten the booming deforestation business if the international community bears the costs. Bolsonaro has asked the international community for billions of dollars to help in efforts to stop deforestation. President Biden called for international funding of conservation and pledged US contribution. 

However, shifting the financial burden of conservation to the international community  obscures existing funds that the Brazilian government neglects to distribute. Different international leaders like those of the G7 remain willing to contribute to the Amazon fund,  which was created by the international deforestation agreement, REDD+, in order to stop deforestation. Bolsonaro already has access to funds, including from countries that have already followed through on their financial pledges to the Amazon fund, but fails to divert them to conservation efforts, as seen in his budget plan that had the lowest level of funding for conservation in decades. 

Indigenous Voices and Better Investment Choices

Furthermore, money alone may not be enough to stop deforestation, especially if it falls in the wrong hands. Environmental activists and Indigenous groups argue that giving Bolsonaro the money does not ensure that the Amazon will be protected, as the Brazilian president’s past actions have demonstrated that his policies can easily and rapidly change. Domestic climate activists and Indigenous advocates warn that money directed toward Bolsonaro and the Brazilian government may not reduce deforestation and suggest instead that international funds would be better allocated in the hands of local and Indigenous communities. 

Though Bolsonaro promised at the Climate Leaders Summit that happened in April this year to present more ambitious commitments at Glasgow, Indigenous communities have expressed concern. Recently, Brazil has seen protests against an erosion of Indigenous protections, such as a policy which would open Indigenous lands in the Amazon to mining and  a court decision backed by the farming industry that endangered Indigenous land claims.

Indigenous groups have been fighting for their land rights and protection of their lands in the Amazon, which has been essential to protecting the rainforest from destruction. The Brazilian constitution established Indigenous land claims in 1988, but these rights have come up again recently because of challenges from the Brazilian congress about opening these lands to extractive activities. This has resulted in a court case where the claims to land are challenged, but this case is currently at a stand still. There has been a push to get rid of the land rights because there are resources that are protected by Indigenous lands, and mining companies and timber companies want to tap into these. The Indigenous people of the Amazon have primarily been protecting the Amazon through their claims to the land, which do not allow for mining, etc, along with other efforts like the Guajajara Guardians, which are Indigenous militias who protect the Amazon from illegal loggers and others who are contributing to the destruction. 

While Indigenous groups have been successful in protecting their land, they remain vulnerable to threats from the government and the Bolsonaro administration. Being Indigenous in Brazil already endangers these groups, and their efforts to protect the Amazon put them at an even further risk, as being an environmental activist can be life threatening in Latin America, especially when advocates counter economic policies. Over 200 environmental activists have been killed annually over the past few years, and over two-thirds of these deaths have been in Latin America, primarily in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras and Brazil. Indigenous lives  comprise a disproportionate amount of reported deaths. These murders are rarely tried in court or brought to justice.

Indigenous rights and protection for the Amazon then go hand in hand, but both have been neglected in the recent past and during Bolsonaro’s time in office thus far. To get Brazil truly on board then, there has to be commitments to Indigenous rights along with the goals promoted at the Climate Leaders Summit, but counting on Bolsonaro to preserve one of the world’s most essential environments might not be reliable. The implementation process for the commitments for COP26 then should consider empowering Indigenous groups to better ensure there will be more robust protection of the Amazon and human rights. 

Brazil and COP26

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who demonstrated similar disregard for climate concerns and issued similarly destructive climate policies, did not apply pressure on Brazil. This meant that Bolsonaro could continue his anti-environmental rhetoric and commodification of the Amazon without serious pressure from the United States.

This year, however, Bolsonaro has taken a turn on his original stance. Part of this change in direction is due to the change in US administration, with the election of President Biden, who has pressured Bolsonaro to take action. Biden, along with other states at the Climate Leaders Summit, leveraged financial incentives to get Bolsonaro on board with more ambitious goals for Brazil, including carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero deforestation by 2030. 

Some of these goals did translate into Brazil’s commitments at COP so far, specifically the commitment to deforestation. During the first few days of COP, leaders agreed to a deal about ending deforestation by 2030, Brazil was among them despite Bolsonaro not attending the conference. This is promising because they are following up on the commitments made in April. The agreement involves billions of dollars in funds to be used in assisting developing countries address issues like wildfires and to support Indigenous communities. Brazil however was not a part of the pledge to support Indigenous and local communities in recognizing their role in protecting land. 

The deforestation commitment and lack of participation in the pledge to support Indigenous communities were moves that could be expected based on the Bolsonaro administration’s actions this year so far. The deforestation commitment is unreliable because similar commitments have been made in the past but not followed through, but having the Biden administration committed to it and wanting to be a leader for the deforestation agreement, this might change the outcome to being more successful. The failure to join the commitment for supporting Indigenous people is disappointing, but this was what Indigenous communities have been warning about, the Bolsonaro administration refuses to recognize the importance of Indigenous communities and neglects to empower them or protect their rights. 

The actions of Brazil at COP so far are surprising considering the prioritization of the business of deforestation that has been so common for Bolsonaro, but unsurprising in the overlooking of Indigenous voices. Indigenous activists have been saying that the government cannot be relied upon when it comes to issues of the Amazon, and this holds true. Though the Brazilian government has agreed to ending deforestation, it will be hard to verify. The unwillingness to tangibly act on these issues this far into Bolsonaro’s term indicates that commitments are probably not going to be taken seriously.

The post In the Fight Against Climate Change, Where Does Brazil Fit? appeared first on Glimpse from the Globe.

HONG KONG — While many countries have been devastated by the pandemic, Hong Kong has done fairly well in containing the spread of the virus. In total, the country has only accumulated approximately 12,000 cases within a population of 7.5 million. 

However, the vaccination program that began in late February has been underwhelming, despite an abundance of supply, with merely 10.7% of the population receiving the first jab as of April 23. Efficacy issues associated with the Sinovac vaccine and general distrust toward the local and Chinese government has led to the poor vaccination rate.

Hong Kong is not known as an anti-vaccine city. Citizens are generally aware of public health issues and willing to participate in mass vaccination programs, especially after the SARS outbreak in 2003 took almost 300 Hongkongers’ lives and dampened the city’s economy. Between late 2019 and mid 2020, an estimated number of 1.2 million Hong Kong residents received flu vaccinations under government programs. 

Since February, Hong Kongers have been able to choose between two COVID-19 vaccines: Sinovac, developed by Chinese biopharmaceutical company Sinovac Biotech and endorsed by the Hong Kong government, and BioNTech, jointly developed by American company Pfizer and German company BioNTech. However, efficacy issues with Sinovac has made the vaccine-accepting public more resistant toward taking the Chinese vaccine.

Sinovac, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by Chinese biopharmaceutical company Sinovac Biotech, began its Phase III clinical trial in July 2020. However, the company has not made its development process transparent. Normally, vaccine companies publish data from their Phase III clinical trial in peer-reviewed journals before obtaining approval from authorities. Sinovac has not published details on its vaccine in a journal. In contrast, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna released their Phase III trial data in the New England Journal of Medicine in December 2020.

In January, before the vaccine was rolled out in Hong Kong and other countries, Sinovac was reported to have an efficacy rate of about 50%, according to Butantan Institute, a Brazilian medical research center. Chile’s recent vaccination program with Sinovac boosted the estimated rate to 56.5%, raising it slightly above WHO’s efficacy requirement of 50%. In comparison, BioNTech is reported to have about 90% efficacy rate, while AstraZeneca’s vaccine is estimated at approximately 75%.

Another concern with Sinovac is its efficacy within elderly populations. During its Phase III trial in Brazil, Sinovac did not gather enough data for its effect on individuals over the age of 60. Only 413 participants over 60 completed two doses in the clinical trial, not enough to have statistical implication.

The company has even released a disclaimer about the lack of data on elderly individuals. According to Pak-leung Ho, leading microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, the Chinese government does not recommend the Sinovac vaccine for individuals over 60. He suggests that Hong Kong can learn from Macau’s vaccination policy, where individuals over 60 will need to consult medical professionals before taking the vaccine.

Currently, Sinovac is being distributed in countries across all continents, including Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia. Many government officials from these countries have reassured their public about the Sinovac’s effectiveness, including Khairy Jamaluddin, Malaysia’s science minister who posted on Twitter after taking the first shot of the vaccine. Singapore, however, has let its Sinovac supply sit in storage after receiving them in February, citing the lack of data as the reason the government has not approved the vaccine yet.

Despite all this, regulators approved the vaccine for use in Hong Kong in February of this year. Local media outlets cast doubt over the rushed approval process, though the government defended its decision and dismissed doubts as a “misunderstanding of the mechanism for authorising vaccines for emergency use.” 

Many citizens in Hong Kong remained wary of Sinovac. In a survey conducted by the University of Hong Kong in January, fewer than 30% of respondents considered Sinovac an acceptable vaccine, compared to a 56.5% acceptance rate for the BioNTech vaccine, the other vaccine option in Hong Kong.  

Another major reason behind Hong Kong’s low vaccination rate is the public’s deep distrust of government. Since the city’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam instigated mass protests over an extradition bill two years ago, her approval ratings have plummeted to historical lows. Her government is also widely regarded as pro-Beijing, especially amid recent electoral reforms where only “patriots” are permitted to run for office.

Residents are particularly skeptical about Lam’s enthusiastic endorsement of the Chinese manufactured Sinovac. When an alliance of hospital employees warned older residents about Sinovac’s lack of sufficient trial data, Lam slammed the group for spreading misinformation. In another case, a private clinic was dropped from the government inoculation programme after it promoted BioNTech over Sinovac and cited their efficacy rates as evidence. 

So far, 15 people have died after receiving vaccines in Hong Kong, 12 of whom received Sinovac jabs. Health officials have repeatedly stressed that the deaths are not linked to the vaccines, though the public remains highly skeptical.

“According to the government, none of the deaths are related to the vaccine,” Hong Kong resident Belinda Lin told the Associated Press. “Most of the patients had cardiovascular conditions, so there must be some association, but the government seems to be trying to dissociate it.”

In March, the government suspended BioNTech shots for two weeks after a batch was discovered to have defective packaging. Authorities threw away the batch, a decision that several medical professionals questioned and likened to destroying evidence.

“I am quite surprised that the Hong Kong authorities said that they had already discarded all the problematic bottles,” said Alvin Chan, a co-chairman of the advisory committee on communicable diseases and a council member of the Medical Association. “To investigate the problem, at least these faulty bottles need to be examined meticulously by the company.”

These incidents have all raised concerns about a political agenda not just behind the vaccination drive, but the government’s endorsement of the Sinovac vaccine. 

As Ramon Yuen, a district councilor from the city’s pro-democracy opposition, told Bloomberg Quint, “many people are saying the government has its own agenda, and this will impact the effectiveness of public health policy.” 

By the end of March, the number of people who scheduled, but skipped, their Sinovac appointments stood at around 20%, compared with a 5% no-show rate for BioNTech appointments.

Recently, the vaccination drive has seen a big boost as the government said it would ease social-distancing restrictions for inoculated people. Bookings on the day of the announcement jumped up to nearly double the number on the previous day. Around 13,500 people made online reservations for the BioNTech vaccine on the first day of the announcement, compared with 3,300 who signed up for Sinovac.

Nonetheless, no matter the incentives offered, as long a lack of public confidence in not just the vaccines, but the government, remains high, the vaccination drive in Hong Kong will stay sluggish.

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Since his inauguration in January 2019, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been a close emulator of former U.S. President Donald Trump through both his divisive rhetoric and staunchly conservative politics. In return, the Trump administration consistently praised Bolsonaro, despite his harmful environmental policies in the Amazon and overall anti-democratic attitudes. Under the new administration of President Joe Biden, this is all likely to change. 

Bolsonaro may prove to be a difficult nut to crack for Biden and his cabinet. With the 2022 Brazilian presidential election looming, Bolsonaro wants to appear strong to voters, actively fighting against what he feels is foreign interference in domestic policies. A concern of interference emerged in 2019, when, after two decades of on-and-off negotiations, Brazil and other members of South America’s Mercosur trade bloc reached a free trade agreement with the European Union. While the Amazon was engulfed in flames, French President Emmanuel Macron demanded more robust conservation policies from Brazil as a condition for ratifying the deal. To the despair of South American and European exporters, Bolsonaro doubled down on his climate denial rhetoric, and the deal has yet to be ratified.

Biden’s inauguration comes as the United States faces a multitude of foreign policy challenges, such as repairing their relationship with NATO and competing with China. Nonetheless, dealing with Bolsonaro, diplomatically or otherwise, will be crucial as Biden seeks to return the United States to the forefront of the fight against climate change, one of his signature campaign promises. Early on the campaign trail, Biden took aim at the Brazilian leader. In the September 2020 presidential debate, Biden said: “The rainforests of Brazil are being torn down, are being ripped down. More carbon is absorbed in that rainforest than every bit of carbon that’s emitted in the United States. Instead of doing something about that, I would be gathering up and making sure we had the countries of the world coming up with 20 billion dollars… stop tearing down the forest, and if you don’t, then you’re going to have significant economic consequences.” This jab at the Brazilian president drew outrage from Bolsonaro, who labeled Biden’s comments as “regrettable,” as well as “disastrous and gratuitous.”

Biden will have two distinct routes in maneuvering an already rocky relationship with Brazil: take the path of direct repudiation of Bolsonaro or work to establish pragmatic collaborative ties with his government. 

Significant steps have already been taken towards repudiation. Most foreign policy aides in the administration regard Bolsonaro as a dangerous figure — a “Trump of the Tropics” with no regard for democratic norms, human rights or environmental protection. Their desire is to put forward policies that push back against Bolsonaro’s populist agenda, not just because it goes against what they believe in, but also because it will be more popular among many liberal American voters. It will also satisfy the wishes of activists within the Democratic Party, some of whom have called Bolsonaro a “pseudo dictator” and agreements between the Brazilian leader and Trump Administration trade representatives a “slap in the face of Congress.” Thus, the Biden Administration sees naming and shaming Brazil as a “climate outlaw” or denouncing it for democratic backsliding as good politics. 

In the first weeks of his presidency, Biden and top aides received a long dossier that requested a freeze of all agreements and negotiations with Brazil while Bolsonaro remains in office. The dossier, which was prompted by the U.S. Network for Democracy in Brazil, has the support of many American and Brazilian organizations, including Friends of the Earth and Articulação dos Povos Indígenas do Brasil (APIB) in Brazil, an organization that advocates for indigenous rights.

It condemns the improved relations between the countries during the Trump Administration, under the rationale that the alliance has tarnished America’s role as the fighter for the expansion of democracy. The document recommends that the Biden administration restrict lumber, soy and meat imports from Brazil, unless confirmation is given that these products are not linked to deforestation or human rights abuses, and that the U.S. government reverts the Technology Safeguards Agreement signed under the Trump administration in 2019. 

Despite Bolsonaro’s wishes expressed in a recent letter to the American president, the dossier emphasizes that the Biden-Harris government should not seek a free-trade agreement with Brazil in any form. This conscious effort to distance the United States from Bolsonaro was echoed by Juan Gonzales, a Special Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere. “Anybody, in Brazil or elsewhere, who thinks they can advance an ambitious relationship with the United States while ignoring important issues like climate change, democracy, and human rights clearly hasn’t been listening to Joe Biden on the campaign trail,” Gonzales said. 

The dossier adamantly warns Biden against engaging in any negotiations with Bolsonaro, as financing joint conservation projects with the Brazilian government could mean throwing money at the problem rather than addressing the root of the issue, which would delay concrete action. The remedy, according to the document, is to attach any financial investment to the demands made by the representatives of Brazilian civil society, indigenous tribes, and other marginalized groups within the country. 

But essentially cutting all ties with a traditional ally and strong trading partner could allow Bolsonaro to further isolate himself from the international community, possibly opening the door for him to continue pushing his undemocratic agenda and reckless environmental policies unchecked. Thus, in order to most effectively fight for democratic values and a progressive environmental policy in Brazil, should Biden work with the Brazilian government or repudiate it?   

To get to the heart of this question, it’s important to analyze U.S. involvement in the region generally. American involvement with Latin America is much more complex than the relationship between these two leaders when viewed through a global lens. Given U.S. concerns regarding Chinese influence in the region, the Biden-Bolsonaro relationship could prove to be pragmatic, instead of one based on repudiation and finger pointing.

After trading criticism for the last months, working with Brazil’s far-right president may not even be possible for Biden. The strategic approach could be to work with the many actors within the country who have a genuine interest in improving the two nations’ relationship. Within Brazilian society, the Biden administration will find out that it not only has willing allies among activists, legislators, academics and civil society groups who have been opposing Bolsonaro’s policies for the last two years, but also among those who seek a middle ground. The Biden administration could listen and learn from these actors, as the dossier instructs, as well as empower local opposition groups to connect with international pro-democracy and environmental movements. If the fight for responsible environmental policies and a stronger democracy in Brazil is to succeed, it will be led by local players.

As it has become clear, Bolsonaro does not take kindly to international criticism over his environmental policies. Thus, Biden must find other means through which to advance his policy ideas for conservation in the Amazon, like his plan to raise $20 billion from the international community to curb the deforestation and devastating forest fires in the region. One possible course of action is working with the Brazilian ambassador to the United States, Nestor Forster. In an October interview with BBC News Brasil, Forster said that any international initiative that brings resources for the sustainable development of the Amazon and helps to finance those who preserve the forest is welcome, as long as Brazil maintains leadership on discussions. 

Yet, would increased U.S. pressure cause Bolsonaro to cave in? Brazilian congressman Alessandro Molon sure thinks so. “I have no doubt that the change in administration in the U.S. will have an impact on Brazil’s environmental policy,” says Molon, who leads the opposition Brazilian Socialist Party in the lower house. “Until now, Donald Trump served as a support for the Brazilian president to act irresponsibly. Now with the U.S. adding to Europe’s pressure, Brazil is more isolated and the government will find it harder to stay on this foolish path.” 

In case pressure alone is unsuccessful at swaying the Brazilian leader, Biden could use America’s economic leverage to force Bolsonaro’s hand. Biden’s climate plan promises to “impose carbon adjustment fees or quotas on carbon-intensive goods from countries that are failing to meet their climate and environmental obligations.” While it’s unknown if the administration will actually apply those kinds of deterrents to Brazil, there are a scope of trade levers the U.S. could pull, says Lisa Viscidi, director of the Energy, Climate Change and Extractive Industries Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank focused on relations between Washington and Latin America. 

Although it seems like a ready-to-use solution, American trade pressure may also fail to have a significant impact on the industries that drive deforestation as trade between the two countries has steadily decreased over the last few years. Between January and September of 2020, accumulated trade between the U.S and Brazil totaled $33.4 billion, a 25% drop from the same period in 2019. Regardless, the United States remains Brazil’s second-largest trading partner, accounting for 9.7% of Brazilian exports and 12.3% of revenue. Only China retains a larger slice, buying more than one-third of Brazil’s exports. The United States is not a major buyer of Brazilian beef and soy, the primary goods associated with deforestation, which are exported primarily to China. As a result, André Nassar, president of oilseeds industry group Aboive, which represents the soy industry, says he does not expect the U.S. to try imposing pressure on Brazil through trade as directly as Europe has. “What I do think will change [with the Biden administration]is that there will be a push within Brazil to get control of illegal deforestation,” he says ‒ differentiating between deforestation for agricultural purposes, which is sometimes allowed under Brazilian law, and irregular land grabbing. “If Biden’s rhetoric says, ‘Brazil, you need to get control of illegal deforestation’, we as the private sector would back that.” 

As Brazilian business goes, so goes Bolsonaro. In 2018, then President-elect Bolsonaro expressed his desire to follow Trump and pull Brazil out of the Paris Climate Agreement. Brazilian agribusiness loudly voiced their concerns in Brazilian media about what that could do to Brazil’s image in global commerce, and the country stayed in. “When it becomes clear that there’s a threat to investment, or Brazilian products, the government is going to listen to businesses,” Nassar says.

Beyond direct economic pressure, Biden does have further options on the table in order to achieve his goals with Brazil, if necessary. In January 2020, the Trump Administration announced it was recommitting to supporting Brazil’s bid for OECD membership. In a reversal of his predecessor’s policy, Biden could withdraw U.S. support for the bid if Bolsonaro does not take concrete action in the Amazon. If the Biden administration uses its weight in the OECD to make Brazilian accession contingent on Amazon protections, that would sharply increase pressure from the country’s business community on Bolsonaro, according to Marcio Astrini, executive director of the Sao Paulo-based Climate Observatory.

Although Biden and Bolsonaro have a multitude of clashing policies, they also share some common interests, especially dealing with the situation in Venezuela. The Venezuelan humanitarian crisis and mass migration into bordering Latin American countries, including Brazil, has become a destabilizing force in the region and Brazil has aligned itself with the current U.S. pressure campaign to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. During the Trump administration, the U.S. opposed Maduro through a “maximum pressure” campaign largely rested on progressively tighter sanctions against the regime, with the goal of forcing him out in favor of opposition leader Juan Guaido, the former head of the National Assembly whom the U.S. and more than 50 other countries recognized as the country’s valid interim president.

This hardline policy toward Venezuela was a rare show of support for democracy by the Trump administration. Yet, it was deeply undermined by Trump’s own autocratic tendencies. Under Biden, the U.S. can renew its full commitment to supporting democracy and bring in Brazil as a potential regional partner to deal with the crisis and improve relations simultaneously. 

The future of U.S.-Brazil relations, while rocky, will likely be productive over the next two years as the U.S. reverts to more traditional diplomatic channels. Under Trump, “Twitter diplomacy” reigned, largely overshadowing the usual process. The traditional approach to diplomacy, where issues are negotiated beforehand by mid-level diplomats, will make a comeback and may ultimately be positive for both Biden and Bolsonaro.

The importance of careful but fruitful diplomacy with Latin America’s largest country is especially important currently for the United States. The U.S. is clearly aware that the neglect of Latin America has provided an opening for Chinese influence in the region. The Biden administration will have to be mindful of not pushing Brazil away and straight into China’s outstretched arms. 

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Ever since he gained global attention during his 2018 presidential campaign, Bolsonaro has drawn international criticism for his inflammatory comments. His presidency has only solidified his reputation as a jingoist, authoritarian president who unabashedly promotes his controversial socially conservative opinions. As damaging as it can be to live under a president with a hefty record of sexist, racist, and downright insensitive comments (an experience not entirely foreign to other nations such as the U.S. and Great Britain who also recently elected controversial leaders), Bolsonaro’s policies unfortunately reflect his provocative political persona.

After a year in office, he has pursued policies that relax gun restrictions, cripple the federal environmental protection service, attempted to eliminate the federal indigenous health agency, and engaged in a lengthy list of other efforts to undermine the stability of vulnerable populations in Brazil. Within the first year of his term, deforestation has increased by 85 percent. His political agenda has left no demographic more exposed to disaster than indigenous populations, especially rural communities in the Amazon.

Unsurprisingly, these rural indigenous communities have suffered the repercussions of the COVID-19 outbreak and wildfire surges the most, without any meaningful support from their president.

Indigenous populations, which constitute around 13 percent of the population of Brazil, suffer from COVID-related deaths at a rate almost 250 percent higher than the general population. Brazil’s Indigenous People Articulation (APIB), the umbrella advocacy organization for indigenous communities in Brazil, estimates that Brazil’s 850,000 Indigenous people have endured 26,443 confirmed cases and around 700 deaths, as of late August 2020. An average of two indigenous Brazilians die as a result of COVID-19 every day. These are likely to be low estimates considering even the most capable agencies have difficulty developing accurate measurements of the virus among rural populations.

In Parque das Tribos, an indigenous neighborhood on the outskirts of the capital city of the Amazonas region, a lack of governmental support has forced community members to support themselves. Because local leaders are often older and more susceptible to symptoms of the virus, young professionals bear the brunt of the logistical aid to communities: forming grassroots networks of community support, driving neighbors to hospitals, deriving naturalist remedies for symptoms, and making endless (and seemingly futile) calls to the federal health agency with pleas for more support. Despite impressive demonstrations of community solidarity, the pervasive feeling among residents is one of abandonment.

Parque das Tribos is just one of many such communities. Indigenous Brazilians across the country, deserted by their government and racked with existential terror for their future, have begun protesting against the Bolsonaro administration. In late August, enraged indigenous communities took to the streets. Protestors blocked a major highway, a crucial route for transporting agricultural products out of the Amazon, donning signs urging Bolsonaro to “protect the Amazon” and support “indigenous rights” under an oppressive layer of wildfire smoke.

Indigenous communities were not the only Brazilians to take to the streets. Thousands of citizens have protested Bolsonaro’s education and pension policies since he took office, and more recently protesters have objected to his approach to COVID vaccines. 

Somehow, Bolsonaro continually dismisses any dissidents as “idiots.” Even as indigenous protests continue to gain traction, spreading from Brazil to Colombia, Bolsonaro shamelessly brushes off legitimate criticism as unfounded. Indigenous communities across Latin America continue to march under the banner of “indigenous rights,” calling for equitable land rights, infrastructure investment, and liberty to enforce their own environmental policies, especially in this time of crisis. Bolsonaro turns a blind eye.

To make matters worse for native Amazonians, wildfires erupted with unprecedented strength at the beginning of the dry season in early May and have raged ever since. Unlike the forest ecosystems in California and Australia, wildfires do not naturally occur in the wetlands of the Amazon, and recent trends of annual wildfires are a direct result of deforestation, pollution, and increasing global temperatures — all of which have been exacerbated by Bolsonaro’s lax approach to environmental protectionism.

These fires have been encroaching on indigenous communities, damaging food supplies, destroying homes, and disrupting  already strained and precarious health care systems. Even for communities that lie beyond the fire line, wildfire smoke leaves eyes, throats, and lungs more exposed to the respiratory effects of COVID-19. According to Human Rights Watch, demand for healthcare, especially respiratory medicine such as inhalers, increases on average by 30 percent every wildfire season, and indigenous health care officials annually struggle to accommodate this massive seasonal demand — even before COVID-19 loomed over vulnerable populations.

In the face of anger and desperation, the Bolsonaro administration has failed to develop a comprehensive plan of action, and Bolsonaro himself only occasionally acknowledges the catastrophic state of the economic and physical health of Brazil’s indigenous people. 

In early May, Bolsonaro deployed the army to combat wildfires, granting them permission to seek out illegal logging, deforestation, and fires. However, many residents argue the army’s presence has only exacerbated conditions in the rainforest, and research concurs that the army’s presence, which consists more of infrastructure projects than raids on illegal activity, has done more harm than good.

Despite domestic and international criticism of military deployment and inadequate plans to combat these crises, Bolsonaro continually refuses to address the pleas of indigenous communities for additional masks, PPE, hygiene supplies, and medical personnel. 

Instead, the president made a mediocre attempt to provide aid to rural Amazonian populations by sending medical personnel from SESAI, the national administration for indigenous health. However, the bureau hastily deployed its workers without sufficient efforts to prevent disease transmission from the medical professionals to patients who were not previously exposed. As a result of SESAI’s irresponsible and ignorant aid tactics, the Bolsonaro administration likely accelerated the spread of the virus among remote populations.

In addition to his failure to support marginalized communities, Bolsonaro has publicly and repeatedly denied the dire nature of wildfires and touted his self-proclaimed success at limiting the impacts of the virus.

In his 2019 speech before the UN General Assembly, Bolsonaro blamed wildfires in the Amazon on indigenous communities, as if native Amazonians — who have called those forests home long before colonizers arrived — were foolishly engaging in cultural rituals that burned their homes, their livelihoods, and their heritage to the ground. He also firmly repudiated the existence of climate change, even denying that the Amazon was a crucial source of oxygen and a vital carbon sink for the entire world. According to Jair Bolsonaro, scientists invented climate change specifically to undermine his success as a president.

A year after his heavily criticized speech before the UN convention, Bolsonaro’s pre-recorded video for the 2020 convention continues to promote his policies as “the best environmental regulations on the planet”, even as all measurements of deforestation, wildfires, and carbon emissions indicate that Brazil is drifting further and further towards the point of no return.

In the midst of this multifaceted crisis tearing through indigenous communities, the President actively engages in a campaign of denial and misinformation. He refuses to acknowledge the extent of the catastrophe, regarding both the virus and the wildfires, and therefore, aims to avoid accountability for his failure to support the citizens that his office obliges him to support. Underpinning this refusal to face reality is the belief that he can ignore the struggles of indigenous communities with absolute impunity.

Since the rise of far-right wing, populist leaders like President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the global tolerance for deliberate misinformation has dramatically increased. Bolsonaro feels empowered to blatantly deny reality and swerve his responsibilities because his fellow conservative politicians have experienced relative success in the tactic of avoiding reality in order to avoid accountability. 

Like Trump and Johnson, Bolsonaro relies on a cohort of fervent far-right supporters to sustain him through storms of public outcry, both domestically and abroad. In response to their leader’s failure to protect and support their needs as citizens, Brazilians have taken to the streets, as have Americans and Brits and citizens from around the world who feel abandoned by the people whose job it is to serve. 

The voice of the people can only overpower the voices of misinformation, ignorance, and apathy with sustained, collective action. Indigenous communities have begun this daunting task, continuing to self-advocate and protest the injustices of Bolsonaro’s leadership, but the international community must do more to support them. Native Amazonians are dying at disproportionate and preventable rates, and so is their home.

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