On September 15, representatives from the United Arab Emirates, Israel and the United States signed the ‘Abraham Accords.’ The Abraham Accords — named after the common ancestor shared by the people of Christianity, Islam and Judaism, was brokered by Jared Kushner, senior advisor to the President of the United States,  between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. This peace agreement is historical because prior to the signing of this agreement, the only Arab nations who had peace deals with Israel were Jordan and Egypt.  

The chief reason for this conflict was the ratification of the Partition Resolution in the United Nations, passed on November 29, 1947, which divided the Palestinian mandate, under British rule at the time, into an Arab and Jewish state. However, the holy city of Jerusalem remained under United Nations control. The resolution sparked outrage amongst both parties but Palestinians felt particularly aggrieved as they thought Jews were favored in the deal. This resulted in numerous ongoing conflicts between Arab Palestinians and Jews which only increased following Israel’s independence from Britain.  

May 14, 1948, a day known as Nakba, meaning “catastrophe,” for the 700,000 Palestinians expelled from their homeland. This day is also known as Yom Ha’atzmaut, which translates to “Day of Independence,” for the Jewish people, who gained the newly created state of Israel. Also beginning on said day was the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, where the Arab nations of Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Transjordan banned together to help defend a Palestinian state. Due to inexperience and a shortage of efficient military equipment, the Arab nations were unsuccessful with their attempt to defend a Palestinian state.   

Solidarity towards Palestine amongst Muslim Arab nations was and still is very strong, which means that these countries are all allied against the Jewish State of Israel. Currently Israeli citizens are not allowed to travel to Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman or Saudi Arabia in an effort to boycott the country. Nor do these countries have diplomatic relations with Israel. In addition, every nation listed except Oman will not allow people with evidence of travel to Israel,such as an Israeli stamp or a stamp from the King Hussein Bridge, to enter their country. However, this animosity towards Israel could change with the Abraham Accords.

Prior to the Accords, the United Arab Emirates also did not allow Israeli citizens to enter their country. However, since its signing we have seen the first flight between the two countries in years. Not only has tourism opened, but trade and economic relations have become possible. 

Bahrain has also signed a peace agreement. Both deals have similar provisions to normalize working relations between the two countries. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain likely signed the deal for similar reasons, a desire to diversify their economies and access to Israel’s advanced technology. For these compelling reasons, we will likely see more Arab and North African nations signing peace deals with Israel. President Trump seems to have confirmed this, stating, “ we are down the road [in terms of deals]with about five different countries,” including Morocco, Oman, and Sudan. With Sudan taking the lead by signing an agreement to normalize relations with Israel on October 23, 2020. These potential shifts would change the political dynamics of the Middle East.  

There are 12 provisions included in the Abraham Accords. The two most notable are the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and Economic relations, meaning both countries will establish embassies and assign ambassadors. In addition, both nations have agreed to establish economic relations, which was likely the main reason the Gulf States agreed to sign. As a result, the United Arab Emirates and Israel will open trade routes between each other and allow travel which wasn’t previously allowed.  

What does this mean for Israel-Palestine relations?

Palestinians have protested the signing of the Abraham Accords, specifically voicing  their dissatisfaction with Arab countries making peace with Israel before peace between Israel and Palestine has been achieved. In response, the United Arab Emirates’ Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Abdullab bin Zayed Al Nahyan, reaffirmed the country’s support for a Palestianian state and thanked President Benjamin Netanyahu for halting his annexation plan of the West Bank. 

Prior to the Abraham Accords, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was planning to annex thirty percent of the West Bank, an area home to approximately 3 million Palestinians and 500,000 Israeli settlers. As of now, annexation has been halted, due in part to the Abraham Accords and COVID-19. Although the plan is currently suspended, Netanyahu has indicated that this hold is only temporary, implying annexation will take place at some point. 

Right now, West Bank Palestinians are faced with eviction to make room for more settlements, insufficient water and electrical resources due to the Israeli regulation, and a lack of access to roads and infrastructure. Unfortunately, these conditions could worsen with Isreali annexation. 

Netanyahu’s aim in the West Bank is to expand Israeli sovereignty. This is alarming for Palestinians and neighboring countries for a number of reasons. An increase in Israeli settlements would result in more Palestinian evictions in the West Bank, further  displacing Arab Palestinians. According to the United Nations Relief and Works agency for Palestine refugees, one-third of Palestinian refugees reside in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria in addition to the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Syria is currently dealing with a civil war, Lebanon is recovering from a tragic explosion and Jordan is handling a water shortage, a substantial increase in refugees could put serious strain on these countries. 

Annexing land along the Jordan River would provide Israel with a military strategic advantage over the West Bank which could be crippling to the already weakened Palestinian resistance.  The Jordan river also provides water and other vital resources for Palestinians and Israelis but if Israel gains sole control of the river Palestine could lose a critical water source for agriculture and energy. 

Although the signing of the Abraham Accords is historic in nature and represents the Middle East effort for peace, Palestinians still do not have an independent state. Since the conflict is largely based on obtaining sovereign land it is hard to imagine peace in the Middle East without an independent Palestianian state. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain’s signing of the accords has proven to motivate other nations to sign similar deals, Sudan for example, for economic or diplomatic reasons, while Israel contiunes to spread their borders, effectively losing sight of any Palestinian state. 

However, the hope is the Abraham Accords will set the stage for a peaceful Middle East, thus ending the Arab-Israali conflict and any subsequent aggression from Arab nations to Israel.      

In mid-August, the United Arab Emirates and Israel announced a peace deal, disrupting the status quo in the Middle East. The deal called for the normalization of relations between the two countries, in addition to the halting of any Israeli annexation plans of the West Bank. Outlined below are the political and economic benefits that can be expected as a result of the peace deal/ 

Economic Benefits

First and foremost, the deal is expected to have tremendous economic benefits, as it paves the way for new financial investments in both countries. The hope is to stimulate both economies, which are reeling from pandemic-related shocks, and address an urgent need for economic restructuring in the Arab Gulf, which is notorious for its dependence on the oil trade. The economic stimulus from the deal is especially critical to revamping Israel’s economy, given that, in the second quarter of 2020, Israel’s GDP contracted by 8.1% and the unemployment rate reached levels not seen since 2016. 

Previously, all business between Israel and the UAE was done under the table, meaning that financial transactions were diverted through third parties, and communication was made through overseas cell numbers and VPNs. Despite these hurdles, Israeli trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council is estimated to be about $1 billion. This economic activity overshadows Israel’s trade with the other Israeli-friendly Arab states, with trade revenues with Egypt and Jordan numbering $500 million and $160 million, respectively. 

Within weeks of the peace deal, Israeli venture capital firms have been fielding calls from both sides about investment opportunities, Emirati billionaires have set up direct flights between the two countries, and some Israeli tech firms are shifting their sales strategies from East Asia to the newly opened Emirati market. The Israeli technology sector seems to be of particular interest to Emirati investors, who have been facing unfavorable domestic markets. As the UAE starts to shift away from oil dependency, Israeli tech provides a gateway into diverse investment portfolios, while generating revenue for the Jewish-majority state. 

Political and Diplomatic Gains 

There are clear political advantages for both parties. The peace deal created a positive media storm for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Emirati counterpart, President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (KZN). Netanyahu especially needed this boost. Since 2016, Netanyahu has faced legal investigations for various allegations, including accepting gifts worth over $1 million, offering to diminish the circulation of a newspaper’s rival if their competitor granted him favorable coverage, and the misuse of public funds by his wife. 

While he has been battling accusations of corruption, the Israeli PM has also faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus. In the early days of the pandemic, Israel seemed to be ahead of the game in its containment of the virus. However, it wasn’t long after the Prime Minister called for Israelis to “have fun” that the virus truly devastated Israel. As of now, over 200,000 Israelis have had confirmed cases of the virus, and less than a third of Israelis are happy with the way Netenyahu has handled COVID-19, according to a poll conducted by the Guttman Center for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy.

The deal is expected to boost Netanyahu’s international status in addition to his domestic popularity, which is critical given that his recent foreign policy moves have been damaging for Israel’s international reputation. Most recently, the prime minister’s plans to annex the West Bank drew widespread international criticism, with the European Union even threatening to suspend Israel’s preferential trade agreement. Israel’s deal with the UAE helps mitigate Europe’s critique of its foreign policy with positive global coverage of a significant diplomatic accomplishment.

For the UAE, the deal helps shift the conversation away from the country’s involvement in the Yemeni Civil War and toward the country’s geopolitical importance and progress. Since 2015, news covering the UAE has been largely dominated by its role in the chaos in Yemen. In 2015, the UAE and Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen to fight against the Houthi rebels, proxy fighters supported by Iran. The UAE contributed over 5,000 members of its own troops, trained 90,000 Yemeni soldiers, distributed billions of dollars and provided weapons. After five years of fighting, Yemen has been left with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises: more than 1 million displaced and over 2 million children malnourished, with 400,000 of them in critical condition. 

Emirati president, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (KZN), was left to assume responsibility for the carnage in this proxy war. Recently, KZN has shifted his foreign policy focus in Yemen to one of retreat. Since last summer, the UAE has been pulling forces out of the conflict and sending them back home. The purpose of this move has been to solidify a domestic defense against Iran, and to pull the UAE out of a war that has been costly and detrimental to its international reputation. The recent peace deal works alongside this important move in two ways. First, it helps to shift the international headlines regarding UAE from one of a warmonger with accusations of violating human rights to an image of a cooperative peacemaker. Secondly, creating a cooperative relationship with Israel helps to strengthen possible military ties against Iran, a common adversary.

Israel and the UAE’s shared animosity toward Iran was an important part of the peace deal.  

Israel, under constant threat from Iran, is accustomed to both fighting Iranian proxy wars and confronting the state directly. On the Lebanese border and in Syria, Israel has faced off against Hezbollah, an Iranian ally based in Lebanon. When it comes to deterring Iran, Israel has leaned on its technological advantage. The nation’s most famous example of its technical prowess is it’s malware Stuxnet,  which was created with the purpose of destabilizing Iranian nuclear facilities. 

With the peace deal in place, the door may be opening for Israel and the UAE to support each others’ military goals and collaborate on intelligence. Already, the UAE is looking to purchase American F-35 stealth fighter jets, a task that would have been impossible if the state did not recognize Israel. 

Looking Ahead

So, what are the future implications of this deal for the region’s stability? In the near future, Gulf states — notably Saudi Arabia — may be incentivized to also formalize relations with Israel, should the economic and security benefits of doing so become undeniable. Additionally, a positive relationship between the UAE and Israel could lead to increased military and business ties between Arab Gulf states and Israel. Already Bahrain, another member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, announced its intent to normalize ties with Israel.

The strength of this budding alliance depends on the ability of Middle Eastern states to place aside past tensions and fully support the success of their regional neighbors. If Israel becomes skeptical of improved Arab militaries, or Arab states start to circumvent Israel, cracks in the alliance will form. There is also the possibility of a Thucydides Trap for Iran, which could see the Arab-Israeli alliance growing stronger and decide to take action before its opponents gain an upper hand. Increased Iranian aggression is particularly dangerous for the region given the state’s alliances with armed rebel groups in several Middle Eastern countries. Thus, Middle Eastern states must remain alert and cautious, preparing for the possibility that Arab-Israeli cooperation prompts further Iranian aggression. 

Nevertheless, the recent peace deal between the UAE and Israel is a refreshing turn in Arab-Israeli relations, representing a momentous step towards greater unity in the Middle East, and providing hope for countries plagued by failing economies and political turmoil in the pandemic era.