Mher Manucharyan was five years old when Azerbaijan cut the gas supply to Nagorno Karabakh for the second time in 2022. He did not survive.

Today, over 120,000 civilians in Karabakh — including over 30,000 children —- are in danger of facing a similar fate as Azerbaijan’s blockade of the only road connecting Armenia to Karabakh, a lifeline for the local population and its only connection to the outside world, approaches its third week. 

On Dec. 13, Azerbaijan cut the gas supply to Nagorno Karabakh (also known by its indigenous Armenian name, Artsakh) for a third time this year. Although the blockade remains, gas supply was restored on Dec. 16 as a result of international pressure, with concerns mounting over the humanitarian implications of a complete lack of gas for households and essential institutions in the winter cold. As schools were closed, daily life in Karabakh was again uprooted, and civilians were left at the mercy of Azerbaijani terror and Russian incompetency, Mher Manucharyan’s story remained fresh in the minds of the few who know it.

Glimpse from the Globe sat down with his cousin, Maria Manucharyan, to record Mher’s story and shed light on the human cost of continued international inaction.

Mher Manucharyan’s Life and Death

“I always saw Mher as the hope of our future, of Artsakh — and before he died, he told me that the hope of Artsakh will never կտրվել [die]. And then he died, hours after he said that.” 

Mher Manucharyan was five years old and living in Stepanakert, Nagorno Karabakh, when Azerbaijan cut the gas supply for the civilian population in March 2022. 

His cousin Maria Manucharyan described him as a bright child who was “mature” for his age, having grown up surrounded by the threat of Azerbaijani aggression. She said that after every sentence, Mher would add, “for Armenia.”

“He wanted to become a pilot for Armenia,” Maria told Glimpse from the Globe. “He had to eat, because if he died, then one member of the Armenian population would go down — for Armenia. He had to study well so he could become someone, for Armenia. We had another cousin who was deciding between studying languages and engineering — and he asked, which way do you think you could help Armenia more?” 

“He was five years old, but he was so mature,” she added. “I think life matured him.”

Remembering her cousin fondly, Maria spoke of his big hopes and dreams for the future. 

“Planes, planes… He loved planes,” she recalled. “He had such a passion for planes that he learned to read when he was four, before school — Armenian, Russian and the Latin script. He learned all of it by himself, with no help, just so that he could read books about planes. You could talk about flowers, and he would somehow manage to describe a plane. His dream was to be a pilot.” 

Maria also described him as a gleeful child whose presence made those around him smile. “He would somehow manage to give you joy and energy,” she said. “He never tired, he was always full of energy and he always yelled.”

When Azerbaijan cut the gas supply and refused to allow Russian peacekeepers to make repairs to the pipeline, temperatures hovered above freezing as it snowed outside in Stepanakert and heating became essential. Mher’s parents feared for their young son’s health due to his asthma, which made him more vulnerable to the cold. Mher was not allowed to leave his family’s poorly-insulated house in Stepanakert or go to school, out of fear that he could fall ill amid the gas cut.

“And it wasn’t their house, it was someone else’s, because their house is in Shushi,” Maria added. “You know what happened to Shushi.”

Despite his family’s efforts, Mher fell ill on March 21, initially showing symptoms of a simple cold. Within days, he would be admitted to Artsakh State Hospital in Stepanakert and diagnosed with “pneumonia developed as a secondary bacterial infection because of the cold or the flu.”

“The entire hospital was mobilized around him, but nothing could save him,” said Maria. Despite his doctors’ and nurses’ best efforts, some machines did not work due to the lack of gas and the hospital itself was cold. All his doctors could do was keep Mher warm with their limited resources and make him comfortable in the final moments of his life. 

“All I can say is that he didn’t just die, he was murdered by Azerbaijan and they must and will pay for it one day,” his cousin said. “How is it acceptable to just freeze children to death in 2022? How?” 

Mher remained his parents’ “last hope” and “the last of everything they had” after they lost his sister two years ago to an Azerbaijani strike during the 2020 Karabakh War. Born in the city of Shushi, a historical Armenian stronghold that was lost to Azerbaijan in 2020, Mher was his parents’ “last of their memory of Shushi.”

“Everybody normalized the fact that it’s just okay, you can kill these people,” his cousin decried. “Whether it’s him or his sister — just because other states don’t recognize Artsakh as one, it’s okay to kill people who live there.”

She spoke of the unimaginable toll Mher’s passing took on his family. “When I talked to them, it’s like they were not alive anymore. Their eyes were empty,” she said. “I don’t know how to describe it.”

“He was their last shred of hope for a future in Artsakh, but he died along with their hope.”

Azerbaijan Blockades Karabakh

“For Azerbaijan, peace means Armenians not existing anymore. What they want is not peace, it’s literal genocide.”

On Dec. 12, a group of Azerbaijanis posing as eco-activists blocked the Lachin corridor, the only overland access point from mainland Armenia to Karabakh after the 2020 Karabakh War (reports soon emerged exposing their government affiliation). 

When Karabakh’s gas supply was cut again by Azerbaijan on the second day of the blockade, the need for Mher’s story to resurface became apparent, as a warning for international watchers of the dangers of Azerbaijan’s terror campaign against the peaceful civilian population of Karabakh.

A humanitarian catastrophe is now quickly unfolding as food and medical supplies run out, surgeries are canceled, patients in critical condition — including children and infants — are unable to be transferred to medical centers in Armenia and resources essential to the survival of the civilian population become scarce. Moreover, the daily supply of 400 tons of humanitarian aid to Karabakh from Armenia has been obstructed, and over 1,100 civilians have been separated from their families, unable to return home.

Although Armenia faced a devastating defeat in 2020 following Azerbaijan’s premeditated war against Nagorno Karabakh, a self-declared republic with an ethnically Armenian population that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, one of the main points of the ceasefire agreement ending the war was that the critical Lachin corridor was maintained, under the protection of Russian peacekeepers.

Russian peacekeepers have thus far failed to uphold their mandate to maintain unobstructed access to the Lachin corridor and protect the local civilian population from Azerbaijan’s attempted ethnic cleansing of Karabakh. 

On Dec. 24, a group of Karabakh activists marched to the Russian peacekeepers’ checkpoint near Shushi to demand they put an end to Azerbaijan’s blockade, and a massive rally was organized in Stepanakert the following day calling international attention to the humanitarian catastrophe after the Russians failed to uphold their promise to open the road.

Now, human rights activists and monitors in the region warn of grave humanitarian consequences should the Russian peacekeepers and international community fail to ensure the Azerbaijani-imposed blockade is lifted and the civilian population regains access to its critical lifeline to the outside world. The political implications of Azerbaijan employing human rights violations as a terror tactic against the civilian population, meanwhile, is yet another key facet of this entirely manmade crisis.

Despite local activism, efforts by the Karabakh and Armenian governments and a degree of international outcry, including pressure by UN Security Council members, the blockade has now lasted for almost three weeks. Should Azerbaijan refuse to open the Lachin corridor for a longer period, there is the full potential for a humanitarian crisis of massive proportions.

“In order for Armenians in Artsakh to be considered humans and their deaths to not be normalized, Artsakh needs to be recognized,” Maria Manucharyan said in closing. “It is not just a matter of land, it’s a matter of survival for an entire nation.”

Azerbaijan, one of the least-free countries in the world whose human rights record can be considered deplorable at best, is featured prominently as the setting for a sizable portion of the plot. Released earlier this summer, the Netflix original follows the story of CIA agent “Sierra Six,” played by Ryan Gosling, who uncovers corrupt secrets about his superior and triggers a global manhunt after him.

Within the first thirty minutes of the film, the words “Baku, Azerbaijan” fill up the screen in bold silver letters against the backdrop of a shimmering Baku skyline. Several minutes later, the cameras pan over a large Azerbaijani flag, featured front and center in a military funeral alongside Azerbaijani soldiers, flags and — interestingly — a Russian Orthodox priest leading the service (Azerbaijan is a majority-Muslim country). 

The scene, pun not intended, looks like it’s straight out a movie. Only, if the movie was an advertisement for oil-rich, dictatorial countries with something to hide.

Notably, the scenes set in Baku are not filmed in Azerbaijan, but in the Czech Republic. Azerbaijan’s unmistakable Flame Towers, the three skyscrapers that have come to symbolize its rather sudden climb to wealth, are added into the scenes set in Baku with computer-generated imagery (CGI).

The release of the film comes one year after Azerbaijan announced a partnership with Netflix, the world’s leading streaming platform.

The prominent incorporation of Baku as the setting for a sizable portion of the plot is particularly important when contextualized alongside Azerbaijan’s infamous black caviar diplomacy — source of the “biggest corruption scandal in the history of the Council of Europe,” according to the European Stability Initiative — and overarching human rights whitewashing strategy. 

The film merely features the shimmering Baku skyline without bringing any known revenue to the country or creating local job opportunities, indicative of a broader whitewashing agenda at hand. One may argue it creates the impression of a paid promotion that Netflix loaned its ad space to.

The concept is even more troubling when considering Azerbaijan’s atrocious human rights record, which deteriorates every year. Azerbaijan not only continues to severely and violently repress its own citizens’ fundamental human rights, but as recently as 2020, it also launched an ethnic cleansing campaign against the civilian population of the autonomous Nagorno Karabakh region. Azerbaijan has since openly invaded neighboring Armenia, following Russia’s footsteps in its war against neighboring Ukraine. 

It is therefore imperative that influential media companies do not give a platform to countries like Azerbaijan, as promotion in an implicitly positive light without additional context will directly benefit the brutal dictator in power and his clan. This will in turn fuel human rights violations and put vulnerable people further at risk.

Regarding the cooperation with Netflix, perhaps foreshadowing this turn of events, Azerbaijani Culture Minister Anar Karimov expressed last year his intentions to “fully demonstrate the film potential of Azerbaijan to the world,” emphasizing the importance of Russia, a close partner of Azerbaijan, in this process, as well. It appears Azerbaijani investments in soft power are now materializing.

Despite being one of the most expensive films Netflix has produced, The Gray Man has not fared well with critics and audiences. However, it now retains the ranking of #1 Netflix film of the year and #4 of all time. 

Meanwhile, other countries in the region have also made significant headway in Hollywood. For instance, the 2021 film Fast and Furious 9 was filmed, in part, on the streets of Tbilisi, Georgia, generating buzz in the country and receiving praise from Georgian authorities, who took credit for the development. The project generated nearly $10 million for the country and created hundreds of local jobs.

Unlike its two South Caucasus neighbors, Armenia has yet to make such progress in the international film industry. 

For instance, the 2016 film The Promise, a story about the Armenian Genocide, was temporarily available on Netflix and was celebrated by Armenian communities worldwide. However, an influx of negative reviews, allegedly orchestrated by genocide deniers, immediately tanked the film’s ratings.

Looking forward, while each country pursues its own spotlight on the international media stage, Azerbaijan continues seeking new avenues to consolidate dictatorial power in the Aliyev clan’s bloody hands and whitewash its human rights record internationally. 

When human rights concerns arise, however, it is up to media companies and the agency of their consumers to act responsibly and consciously in light of the global implications they perpetrate.

Just moments later, hundreds of phones here at the University of Southern California would be buzzing with notifications bearing the news. The nightmare, it seemed, had breached USC’s walls.

Major towns and communities across southern Armenia came under heavy shelling as Azerbaijani forces invaded Armenia, launching a war of choice. Azerbaijan’s attacks against Armenia left at least 207 dead, 296 injured and over 7,600 displaced.

These are not just numbers, however. For many of the nearly 1,000 Armenian students at USC, they are family and friends.

It has now been a week since Azerbaijan launched its brutal military campaign, taking hundreds of Armenian lives. It has also been a week since USC failed to acknowledge these attacks.

Los Angeles is home to approximately 1 million Armenian-Americans, and among the largest Armenian diaspora centers in the world. In addition to being an academic hub of this diasporic center, USC prides itself in having one of the largest Armenian student body populations in the United States, and hosts one of the leading Armenian Studies institutions in the world in the Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.

As an institution committed to the wellbeing of its student body and inclusivity efforts on campus, however, USC has failed its Armenian community — one of the largest on campus — at every turn. Hundreds of students have yet to receive visibility, resources or even a statement of acknowledgement on behalf of USC administration during what, for many, has been the most stressful and terrifying week of their lives.

Where the university has failed, student activism will not. Alongside students from top universities across the country, USC students have drafted an open letter appealing to the American academic community to denounce Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia and support democracy worldwide. USC students, faculty and staff are urged to take a principled stance by adding their names to the letter.

Furthermore, below is a selection of student reactions to the invasion of Armenia, from Armenian students and non-Armenians alike. Glimpse from the Globe lends itself as a platform to make these students feel heard.

USC Students React to Invasion of Armenia

“Please don’t make us feel invisible.” – Anthony Khoory, Senior, Sociology

“The lack of response from USC regarding the recent events in Armenia is extremely heartbreaking. There are almost 1,000 Armenians on campus, and I feel like we are all invisible. No one talks about how our families are getting bombed back home, and we have to deal with all of this college stress while our own university stays silent and overlooks our experiences.” – Eduard Ghazaryan, Sophomore, International Relations

“Having many Armenian friends myself, many of whom are USC students, I have seen the direct impact these events have had on them. I know people that have lost close friends and acquaintances to the violence and attacks perpetrated by Azerbaijan, and the Armenian diaspora is actively seeing their country at risk of being taken and destroyed. Azerbaijan breaks ceasefires, tortures prisoners of war, and attacks innocent civilians. It honestly baffles me that the international community has turned a blind eye so many times to these atrocities. It is especially important that USC recognize its large Armenian student body and take action to support them.” – Giovani Zaarour, Junior, Computer Science and Business Administration

“It is a lonely feeling to be Armenian right now. The weight of Azerbaijan’s attacks and their inhumane treatment of our soldiers is crushing and unbearable. As a transfer student conscious of the large Armenian population at USC, I was expecting that the university would acknowledge and condemn Azerbaijan’s actions. Instead, the silence of students and administrators is deafening. In these moments, Armenians feel as if we are screaming into a void where none of our cries can be heard. A statement in support of our country would make a world of a difference in assuring Armenians that USC cares about our livelihoods.” – Solange Aguero, Sophomore, English Literature

“The crisis currently unfolding between Armenia and Azerbaijan has resulted in the death of hundreds. It has become the subject of international concern, as any time a country obtaining territory from another sovereign state through the use of force should be. USC acknowledged such severity when the war between Ukraine and Russia began. As a student of USC, I ask that the university show the same support now. The emotional impact that recent events hold on Armenian students at USC has been heartbreaking, placing these students in a state of continuous worry, plagued with sleepless nights and a connection to the reality of death that no student should have to experience. USC must not only acknowledge and spread awareness, but must provide resources and outlets that support its Armenian students during this time of uncertainty.” – Matthew Giesecke, Junior, Political Science

“What’s happening in Armenia cannot and should not go unnoticed. The unprovoked, unnecessary and one-sided aggression by Azerbaijani forces is threatening Armenian sovereignty as we speak. Seeing my Armenian friends in so much uncertainty about their homes and futures makes me question the world’s moral standing. You don’t have to be Armenian to see that what’s going on is wrong. You have to be a rational human being to make that distinction. Armenia belongs to Armenians, not to serve Azerbaijani terror.” – Zain Khan, Sophomore, Journalism and International Relations

“A proud moment as a USC student was when USC made a statement supporting Ukraine and provided resources for affected students, even hosting a vigil in support of Ukraine. In a letter sent to all students, USC stated its support for the ideals at the heart of our global community: respecting human rights, freedom and international law. Currently, the same ideals and fundamental freedoms are being attacked in Armenia. There are hundreds of Armenian Trojans who, at the moment, are deeply affected by this. I hope USC makes a statement in support of these ideals and provides affected students with necessary resources.” – Armond Mnatsakanyan, Senior, Philosophy

“This entire ordeal is a nightmare. Two years ago on September 27, we woke up to war and the world remained silent. The nightmare re-occured on September 13. It’s not only upsetting to see sovereign Armenia under attack, but it is absolutely devastating that the institution we have devoted our undergrad years to has chosen to be complacent and remain silent. Our university is located in LA, which houses the largest Armenian population outside of Armenia, yet USC’s silence sadly speaks volumes. It is simply unjust to remain silent when your student population is constantly listening to news and reading articles, to ensure that their families and loved ones are safe. The anxiety and the guilt that follows Armenian Americans is inexplicable –- I wish more professors and students were aware. The only side we need to be on is the side of justice and peace.” – Mariam Manukyan, Senior, Political Science

“Seeing my Armenian friends deeply affected by this is disheartening, and it’s ridiculous that the USC administration has not even commented on the ongoing situation in Armenia. As a university, they have a responsibility to advocate for and support all students, and they are currently not fulfilling that responsibility.” – Piya Garg, Junior, International Relations and Global Business

“I feel deeply saddened and disappointed by the lack of consideration USC has shown for the dire situation my homeland, Armenia, faces as we speak. Azerbaijan is shelling villages in sovereign Armenian territory and is once again committing unspeakable war crimes against my people. The least USC could do is formally condemning Azerbaijani aggression. As Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel once said, ‘Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.’” – Irina Harutyunyan, Sophomore, Business Administration

“It has been a week since Azerbaijani forces attacked Armenia. It has been a week, and I have not been given a voice. What may look like a small territory to you is home, heritage and history to me. How many more innocent lives must be taken? How many more children must perish and teenage soldiers be martyred? How many more villages must be shelled and people expelled? And how many more generations of Armenians must fear for their safety and their homeland for you to spread awareness and defend an Armenians’ right to exist?” – Anna Sarukian, Senior, Neuroscience

“I am so incredibly angered by the lack of attention about the invasion of Armenia. The Armenian Genocide was denied and now it’s happening again. Our voices must be amplified by those in power, including the USC administration. It’s important the University stands in solidarity with us Armenian students, who are experiencing a great deal of emotional pain right now. LA is home to the largest Armenian diaspora and USC has hundreds of Armenian students: there is no reason the University should stay silent on this issue.” – Lydia Costantian, Sophomore, Political Economy

“The University’s lack of a response in the wake of the invasion of Armenia has left many of us disappointed. As Trojans, we must speak up against injustice all around the world, and the atrocities that are currently being committed by Azerbaijan are no different. Armenians have always felt home at SC. However, we can’t help but feel neglected when our country’s struggles are ignored by university higher-ups. A written statement condemning Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenia would be a start.” – Michael Khoylyan, Junior, International Relations

“USC is home to one of the largest Armenian student populations in the country. As a minority on campus we currently feel unheard; however, we are vociferous students and we want to bring this humanitarian issue to the forefront as it is a global issue, not just an Armenian one.” – Seeran Ajemian, Senior, Journalism

“USC stayed silent during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war while Azerbaijan committed inhumane war crimes against Armenians and displaced thousands from their homes. USC has also been silent in the recent Azebaijani attacks on the sovereign territory of Armenia. Given that the Los Angeles area is home to hundreds of thousands of Armenians and the number of Armenian students attending USC, this silence is betrayal. We love this university, but we have not received the same love back. These events have had a very noticeable and detrimental effect on the lives of your many Armenian students, staff and faculty.” – Mher Garibyan, Graduate Student, Biomedical Engineering

“The past few days have been nothing short of a nightmare for me and my Armenian friends on campus. Though the escalation of aggression against Armenia does not come as a surprise, I am deeply saddened to see the lack of support and acknowledgement from USC. With such a large population of Armenian students on campus, and with Los Angeles as the heart of the diaspora, I cannot help but feel a lack of support and solidarity provided for my people. We deserve to feel heard and supported on campus.” – Christine Almadjian, Senior, Law, History, and Culture 

“I came back from Armenia this summer excited to learn about complex algorithms, artificial intelligence and machine learning, aware that one day I could make an impact in these fields not just across the world, but also in Armenia. Now, as I prepare for exams, I am left with the deep pain of having to ask myself if I will have a homeland to leave an impact on. More importantly, what will happen to my people and my family? It feels as though the world’s inability to hear our voice may halt my journey with Armenia just as it was beginning.” – Aren Melkonian, Senior, Computer Science

“It’s not enough to be heard, it’s about taking action. I hope USC will respond to our struggle.” – George Gemayel, Junior, Physics

“It’s just frustrating that the school hasn’t said anything. Other issues and events have received instant responses from the school, but we don’t get anything. It’s just upsetting, especially with the number of Armenians here.” – Hasmig Krikorian, Senior, Law, History, and Culture

“In addition to courses, research, work and internships on their plates, Armenian students at USC need to be constantly worried about their families and acquaintances back home. Armenia has been under constant fear and attack and the Armenians in Armenia are not the only ones paying the cost. No one deserves to be scared for people they love, especially when they are far enough to feel hopeless about it. The atrocities committed against Armenia are not only an international violation but also a human rights violation.” – Nour Myra Geha, Sophomore, International Relations

“Ever since the situation in Armenia escalated, I feel like my voice is unheard. There aren’t many resources on campus to make our voices heard.”  – Nona Nersisyan, Sophomore, Computer Science

This is the reality for post-2020 Armenia. 

Hopes for a brighter democratic future after the successful 2018 Velvet Revolution were soon crushed by violence, hatred and aggression that should have no place in this world. Grappling with the chaos that unfolded following a decisive defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, a burgeoning democracy once full of potential is now left shattered, left to pick up the pieces of a freshly painful past. 

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev launched an unprovoked, premeditated attack on the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, an autonomous region populated by ethnic Armenians and internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. 

Azerbaijan’s booming petroleum industry allowed its economy to rapidly advance over three decades following a decisive defeat in 1994 during the first Nagorno-Karabakh War. Fueling investments that drastically transformed Azerbaijan’s military landscape, the post-Soviet republic’s oil money empowered Aliyev’s decision to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through military force in 2020. Because the wealth accumulated from crude petroleum exports to EU countries enables Azerbaijani aggression and human rights violations in Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU is best equipped to de-escalate violence in the region by implementing, or wielding the threat to implement, sanctions against Azerbaijani oil.

From Rags to Petrodollars: The Rise of Azerbaijan in the Interwar Era

The first Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out in 1988 and resulted in a decisive Azerbaijani defeat in 1994, with the Soviet Union’s dissolution as the backdrop. 

An autonomous republic gifted to Soviet Azerbaijan by Stalin to curry favor with the Ottoman Empire, the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast has been subjected to violence and ethnic cleansing for over thirty years. After years of ethnic clashes and anti-Armenian pogroms in Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh’s overwhelmingly Armenian population declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 using the same mechanism exercised by Azerbaijan to declare independence from the USSR. When Azerbaijan launched a military invasion against Nagorno Karabakh in 1992, Armenia stepped in as guarantor of peace for Nagorno Karabakh and achieved a decisive victory over Azerbaijan in 1994. 

In the war’s immediate aftermath, the two sides signed a ceasefire establishing a status quo that secured de-facto independence for Nagorno Karabakh’s civilian population and military control over the breakaway region with a buffer zone of seven territories. The conflict, therefore, was left in a frozen state for almost thirty years. Due to Armenia’s victory in 1994, the status quo that followed played largely to its favor. 

Burdened with a devastating loss, lack of international support and a dictatorship facing increasing resistance, Azerbaijan in the interwar period between the Nagorno Karabakh Wars became a breeding ground for mounting aggression. However, Azerbaijan held that the window for meaningful negotiations had long passed. International mediators acted in Armenia’s favor by preserving the status quo that granted Karabakh de facto autonomy. One Azerbaijani analyst writes, “the last round of substantial negotiations with the potential to come to an ultimate solution took place in Key West in 2001 when Azerbaijan was still represented by the previous President Heydar Aliyev. In almost 20 years since then, the peace process became less and less substantive.” 

With this pretext, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan, in the interwar period, had become poised for war. 

Armenia took on the role of victor for nearly thirty years. During this time, tensions in Azerbaijan brewed as its loss became a sour point in its recent history, and the lack of international support was salt on an open wound. Moreover, recent developments also contributed to Azerbaijan’s decision to launch a war in 2020. Increased protests surrounding dictator Ilham Aliyev’s falsified elections took place in a severely repressed, unfree Azerbaijan. Such events signaled increasing unrest that posed a threat to the current regime. 

Then, in light of Azerbaijani aggression in the northern bordering district of Tavush, Armenia, domestic tensions boiled over. On July 15, 2020, the BBC reported:

“Thousands gathered in Baku’s Azadliq Square on Tuesday night waving the national flag and calling for the government to mobilise troops and retake Nagorno-Karabakh. This was the largest public gathering in the country for years, with some media reports estimating up to 30,000 people taking part.”

The domestic pressure on Aliyev, then, had reached a tipping point. Taking matters into his own hands, the Azerbaijani dictator waged war against Nagorno Karabakh in 2020. 

During the first Nagorno Karabakh War, the playing field was level between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, the resolve of the Armenian side and Nagorno Karabakh authorities paved the way for an Armenian victory. However, the balance of power in the region would soon shift in Azerbaijan’s favor. Military strategy could no longer dictate the outcome of a war where 21st-century military technology—especially unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and drones—was involved. Therefore, the second Nagorno Karabakh War in 2020 yielded a drastically different result: a decisive Azerbaijani victory.

In the period from 1994 to 2020, Azerbaijan’s economy underwent a substantial transformation. Its exploitation of petroleum resources for exports and investments yielded exponential growth in all sectors of the Azerbaijani economy and military budget. According to the Asian Development Bank, “Azerbaijan’s diversified economy collapsed with the breakup of the Soviet Union.” Despite the dangers of heavy reliance on petroleum, in 2010, “approximately 80% of all budget revenue derived from the oil industry through the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) and…in 2013 SOFAZ alone accounted for 58% of the state budget revenues. Even leading industries in the non-oil economy are indirectly funded by the oil sector, such as construction and transport.” 

In turn, the huge growth of the Azerbaijani economy since the Soviet Union’s collapse funded an increased military budget. Empowered by its economic growth over the last three decades, Azerbaijan developed a “diversified arms trade market. Its main suppliers are Russia and Israel, but it has purchased a significant amount of arms from Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey and some other countries.” 

Simultaneous to this economic-turned-military development in Azerbaijan, in the interwar period, several diplomatic processes were undertaken to resolve the conflict within the designated OSCE Minsk Group’s framework and beyond. However, with the rise of the second Aliyev presidency, negotiations soon came to a deadlock as Azerbaijan adopted a maximalist position. The only difference was that now it had the power to enforce it. 

Resorting to open military aggression in complete abandonment of diplomatic norms, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale 44-day attack against Nagorno Karabakh’s civilian population in 2020, featuring mortar launchers, artillery, tanks, and illegal weapons like cluster munitions and white phosphorus. 

Moreover, Azerbaijan’s carefully-developed foreign influence via caviar diplomacy and the channeling of petrodollars towards the current regime enable this open aggression. Caviar diplomacy entails using high-end lobbying to enhance Azerbaijan’s image abroad and prevent condemnations of its domestic human rights abuses. In one instance, the Council of Europe became embroiled in such a scandal. 

The Guardian reports, “the European Azerbaijan Society (Teas) regularly takes MPs, MEPs and government officials on trips to the former Soviet state, where they are put up in luxury hotels. On previous trips, members of the Council of Europe visiting the capital, Baku, are among those to have been treated royally.”

While its wielding of petrodollars has allowed Azerbaijan to maintain its image abroad amidst gross human rights violations within its borders, it also props up the current dictatorship. Widespread corruption in the highest ranks of the Azerbaijani government funds the Aliyev clan’s personal wealth through money from the oil industry. As long as a corrupt dictatorship remains in power, the notion that democracies cannot go to war with each other will not prevail. 

Azerbaijan will continue to have the choice to wage war instead of pursuing the diplomatic path, and violence will ensue. 

EU Sanctions Could Break the Cycle of Violence

As a leading consumer of the Azerbaijani petroleum fueling violence in the South Caucasus, the EU can discourage Azerbaijani aggression in Nagorno Karabakh by employing, or wielding the threat to employ, sanctions against Azerbaijani oil. 

In 2020, EU countries accounted for approximately 50% of all Azerbaijani petroleum exports. The largest EU consumers of Azerbaijani petroleum included Italy (the largest at nearly 30%), Greece, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, France, Romania, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Poland, among several others. 

As a country that is cripplingly dependent on its petroleum resources for economic sustenance and its military budget, Azerbaijan relies heavily on EU consumers for nearly half of its oil industry (and, therefore, its economy). Through the EU’s continued business, the government funnels petrodollars to maintain Aliyev’s dictatorial regime and funds military aggression against civilians in Nagorno Karabakh. As such, the EU holds significant leverage over the Azerbaijani economy and, therefore, can wield influence over the violence in Karabakh. 

Since the remaining 50% of consumers of Azerbaijani oil consist of countries such as Turkey, China and Israel, whose own human rights records or declared partnerships with Azerbaijan make them improbable candidates for imposing sanctions, this leaves the EU as the best institution to mitigate this issue through a humanitarian lens. The EU should employ this potential for economic impact to prevent further human rights violations and military aggression. 

Currently, the imposition of sanctions, or “restrictive measures,” requires unanimity by the Council of the EU. As of 2018, the EU solidified the process for a global human rights sanctions regime. The Council now has an established framework to effectively wield targeted sanctions against guilty parties such as oil-rich dictators, oligarchs and their oil industry partners in cases like that of Azerbaijan. 

U.K.-based consulting firm Aperio Intelligence explores avenues for EU sanctions in light of increased violence in Nagorno Karabakh. The firm writes, “The EU could also be moved to implement sanctions against Azerbaijan, as sanctions have previously been on the agenda due to human rights issues in the country. In 2015, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the Council to consider targeted sanctions against Azerbaijani politicians for prosecutions against civil rights activists in the country.” 

If the EU began a process of implementing sanctions against major actors in the Azerbaijani oil industry or merely wielded the threat of employing such sanctions, it would be credible enough to coerce Azerbaijani compliance. With the backdrop of EU sanctions on Russia currently ravaging the latter’s economy, the rumblings of such discussions in the EU would go a long way towards alarming Aliyev and sending a message that open military aggression will not be tolerated. 

The government would be forced to reconsider its choice of resorting to violence to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Instead, its actions may be restricted, deterred and violence against the civilian population prevented. 

The power of sanctions lies in their preventative nature. In Volume 9 of the Chaillot Papers publication, Francesco Giumelli makes a unique case for EU sanctions. “The vast majority of observers would expect sanctions to change the behaviour of targets by inflicting material pain that would force them to change their policies – the so-called ‘pain-gain’ equation,’” he writes. Instead, “sanctions influence targets not only by coercing, but also by constraining and signalling them.”

In the case of Azerbaijan, sanctions would serve to prevent violence and human rights abuses and as an effective restraint on authoritarianism. With the imminent threat of petrodollars — the main source of funding for aggression and preferred avenue of conflict resolution for Aliyev — being cut off, diplomacy would become the most economically viable option for Aliyev. 

In this way, the EU could force Azerbaijan’s hand, pushing it towards peaceful efforts with mediated diplomatic efforts instead of open aggression. 

Moreover, by exercising the prospect of economic sanctions to restrain Azerbaijani aggression, the EU would impose an effective constraint on Aliyev’s authoritarian power against his own citizens. Though it is improbable that the threat of such sanctions would push Azerbaijan towards democratic norms, it would at the very least ensure compliance with international standards for conflict resolution. 

Russian gas and the EU: Where Does Azerbaijan Fit In?

Among several objections to the prospect of EU sanctions on Azerbaijani oil, one significant speculation is that such a move would undermine the long-term EU agenda to decrease resource dependency on Russia. 

Azerbaijan has long been regarded as a possible alternative to Russian oil and gas. However, Aliyev’s foreign policy decisions since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War seem to eliminate this concern. One day ahead of Putin’s unprecedented invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement cementing their alliance. The deal included pro-Azerbaijani points on the Nagorno Karabakh issue, signifying that Azerbaijan was compromising its traditionally pro-Ukraine position to advance its military interests. In turn, Russia secured an important guarantee. 

EurasiaNet reports, “As per point 25, Azerbaijan and Russia agree to ‘refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party.’ Azerbaijani officials have promoted the idea that gas from their fields in the Caspian Sea could act as a replacement for Europe should Russia cut off its energy exports as a consequence of the Ukraine conflict.”

Aliyev decided to take Azerbaijani gas off the table as an alternative to Russian gas in a calculated move to advance his interests in the Nagorno Karabakh issue. By showing a firm hand on his foreign policy, Aliyev curries domestic favor and maintains his position at the head of the government. Therefore, the agreement effectively rendered obsolete the prospect of sanctions compromising any EU agenda on Russian energy dependency. 

Instead, this development strengthens the case for EU sanctions against Azerbaijani oil. Aliyev has become dangerously comfortable with the constant source of wealth from oil exports, to the point that he sacrifices other significant economic opportunities — and Azerbaijan accounts for only 5% of the EU’s oil imports, making it a less costly venture for the EU. In tandem, these realities make a compelling case for sanctioning Azerbaijani oil.

Ultimately, Azerbaijan’s oil money empowered Aliyev’s decision to solve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict through military force in 2020. As a result, the wealth accumulated from petroleum exports to EU countries enables Azerbaijani aggression and human rights violations in Nagorno Karabakh, making the EU the best-equipped institution to curb violence in the region by employing sanctions on Azerbaijani oil. 

Mothers in Karabakh raise children in bunkers, only to send them to war when they’re of age. How many is too many? 

The EU must wield its power positively to break the cycle of violence because soon, it may be too late.